Wall Street futures mixed ahead of key data: 5 things to know before market opens

US stock futures were mixed on Thursday as investors waited for producer-price data to test whether the recent selloff in bonds and equities has further to run.

Dow futures rose over 100 points 0.21% and S&P 500 contracts gained 0.13%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.17% after three straight losing sessions.

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.85%, keeping inflation fears alive.

The PPI report arrives at 8:30 am ET, while the ECB decision, Apple’s post-launch reaction and earnings from Oracle and Adobe give traders plenty to absorb before and after the opening bell today.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. PPI gets the first chance to move the market

August producer prices arrive an hour before the opening bell and may give traders the clearest steer yet on whether the Fed can stay on hold next week.

Economists expect headline PPI to rise about 0.4% month on month, with core PPI up 0.3%.

Markets are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a quarter-point Fed increase. A hotter print could lift yields and pressure growth shares; a softer reading would challenge that trade. CPI follows on Friday.

2. $100 oil is now an equity-market issue

Brent remained above $101 after breaking $100 this week as Middle East fighting continued to threaten Gulf supply. WTI also stayed elevated, keeping pressure on transport costs and inflation expectations.

UBS Global Wealth Management’s Mark Haefele told Barron’s that the psychological impact of $100 oil matters, but earnings growth and structural investment should remain more important for equities.

That helps explain why futures are not signalling outright panic.

3. The 10-year yield is edging towards a more dangerous level

The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.85%, near its highest since 2023, after the Treasury’s planned $6 billion buyback of longer-dated debt underwhelmed parts of the market.

The development came as investors hoped for a larger intervention. Thursday also brings the buyback operation and a $22 billion auction of 30-year bonds.

A move closer to 5% would make valuation pressure on technology and other long-duration stocks harder to ignore.

4. The ECB could reinforce the global tightening story

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday.

The decision itself is almost fully priced, making Christine Lagarde’s guidance the bigger issue.

ING economists told MarketWatch they expect Lagarde to keep her options open and resist endorsing market pricing for three additional increases by June 2027.

A more hawkish message would reinforce concerns that higher energy prices are pushing policy tighter globally.

5. Apple, American Eagle and software earnings add stock-specific risk

American Eagle shares fell over 11% before the bell despite reporting earnings of 79 cents a share, far above expectations.

Investors focused instead on weaker merchandise margins, a comparable-sales miss and the one-off tariff refund that boosted profit.

Apple remains in focus after unveiling the $1,999 iPhone Duo, its first foldable phone. After the close, Oracle and Adobe report earnings.

Oracle will be judged on AI-cloud demand and spending, while Adobe faces another test of whether AI adoption can accelerate recurring revenue.