Can HYPE reclaim $90 after bouncing from $77?

HYPE has climbed more than 3% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from around $77 to trade near $81 on Sept. 14.

Much of this buying followed after market reports highlighted that Hyperliquid L1 had moved from eighth to seventh in chain total value locked rankings, overtaking Arbitrum.

Both networks were at roughly $1.40 billion in TVL at the time.

HYPE has climbed more than 3% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from around $77 to trade near $81 on Sept. 14.

Much of the buying followed market reports that Hyperliquid L1 had moved from eighth to seventh in chain total value locked rankings, overtaking Arbitrum.

Both networks were at roughly $1.40 billion in TVL at the time.

Total value locked across the Hyperliquid protocol stood at $6.73 billion, up 11.6% over the past 30 days, according to MSB Intel.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid’s efforts to gain access to the US derivatives market have remained in focus withing trading circles. 

Kraken parent Payward has proposed a structure under which its Bitnomial subsidiary would offer registered US users crypto perpetual futures linked to markets on Hyperliquid’s decentralised exchange and Layer 1 network, Bloomberg reported in late August. 

Payward has presented the proposed structure to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, although regulatory approval remains pending.

The proposal followed discussions involving Hyperliquid representatives and both the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission over possible routes for regulated US firms to offer perpetual futures that trade, clear and settle on Hyperliquid’s blockchain. 

Options under discussion have included regulatory guidance, exemptions and no-action relief, according to The Information.

Regulatory activity around perpetual futures continued into September. 

On Sept. 9, the Hyperliquid Policy Center filed an amicus brief supporting the CFTC in a lawsuit brought by CME Group over the regulator’s decision to allow perpetual futures in the US market.

The group asked the court to dismiss CME’s case.

HYPE’s recovery after the Sept. 6 token unlock has provided another factor behind the latest price move. 

The unlock released 433,419 HYPE allocated to core contributors, equal to 0.19% of the floating supply at the time, creating the potential for selling as previously locked tokens became available.

HYPE fell from its September high near $89 to around $77 but has since returned above $80, showing that buyers have absorbed enough of the available supply to reverse part of the decline. 

The token remains roughly 9% down over the past seven days.

HYPE price analysis

HYPE is trading around $80.85 on the 4-hour chart after bouncing from the $77 area.

Price has moved above the 20-period exponential moving average at $79.82, while the 200 EMA sits lower at $76.92.

The 100 EMA at $80.91 and 50 EMA at $81.27 now sit directly above the price. 

A 4-hour close above $81.27 would clear both averages and could open a move towards $84. A break above $84 would put $86 in view, followed by the September high around $89.

The 4-hour Commodity Channel Index has climbed to around 104 after spending much of the recent decline below zero. 

Its EMA remains near -23. The move above +100 shows that buying momentum has returned on the 4-hour timeframe, but HYPE has yet to clear the $80.91-$81.27 resistance formed by the two EMAs.

On the daily chart, HYPE is trading near $80.71 and remains below its nine-day simple moving average at $81.96. See below.

The SMA sits close to the resistance already visible on the 4-hour chart, placing the main short-term barrier between roughly $81 and $82.

Daily Relative Strength Index stands at 53.8 after falling from above 70 during HYPE’s move towards $89. RSI remains above 50 but below its moving average at 59.8. 

A return above 60 alongside a price break over $82 would support a move towards $84 and $86, with $88-$89 above them.

If HYPE falls back below the 4-hour 20 EMA at $79.82, the next support sits around $78. 

The 200 EMA at $76.92 lines up closely with the recent $77 low, making $76.90-$77 the main support below it. A break under that area could send HYPE towards $74-$75.