Nvidia stock jittery ahead of next week's results: what to expect

Shares of Nvidia edged lower on Thursday, even as a Wall Street analyst struck an optimistic tone on the company’s upcoming earnings.

Nvidia stock fell 0.15% to $187.16 in Thursday trading. The modest decline came as investors positioned ahead of the company’s earnings report scheduled for next Wednesday.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.52, representing a 71% increase from $0.89 a year earlier

Revenue is projected to reach approximately $65.67 billion, up about 67% year over year.

For fiscal 2026, analysts forecast full-year sales of $213.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share.

Data centre revenue has remained the primary growth engine for Nvidia, totalling $131.4 billion through the first nine months of the fiscal year.

Analyst sees sales upside and China opportunity

Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer said he expects a positive earnings report, highlighting potential upside to consensus estimates.

“We see ‘typical’ $2 billion-$3 billion upside potential to Street sales…led by GB300 Ultra,” Schafer wrote in a research note on Thursday.

With China representing a potential $50 billion total addressable market, Schafer said Nvidia’s broader addressable market could rise further from its current estimate of around $4 trillion.

“NVDA is the ubiquitous AI platform best positioned to win, in our view,” he wrote.

“China represents incremental $50 billion TAM [total addressable market] pending H200 license approvals, a ‘when’ not an ‘if’ in our view,” he added.

Schafer maintains an Outperform rating on Nvidia shares and a $265 price target.

He also said the average selling price for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin system is likely to be 40% to 50% above that of GB300, which sold for roughly $3.5 million.

Based on that pricing dynamic, Vera Rubin could contribute approximately $8 billion in additional revenue, according to Schafer.

What investors should look for in Nvidia earnings

Investors are also closely watching capital expenditure plans from major cloud providers.

Hyperscaler spending is expected to accelerate into 2026, with indications of roughly $300 billion in AI infrastructure investment for calendar 2026.

Market participants are seeking confirmation that this spending continues to flow to Nvidia and could potentially exceed current expectations.

Recent capex guidance from companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Alphabet has reinforced expectations of sustained AI infrastructure investment.

At the same time, supply chain constraints remain a focus.

Memory components and hard disk drives have emerged as bottlenecks, raising questions about whether such constraints could affect the timing of Nvidia’s shipments or data centre buildouts.

Investors are also looking for updates on AI-related sales into China, which could provide incremental near-term revenue beyond current projections.

Despite the stock’s recent pullback, Nvidia remains on a streak of delivering results above its own quarterly guidance and issuing forward guidance ahead of consensus estimates.