Lucid stock falling wedge pattern points to a surge after earnings

Lucid stock remains under intense pressure this year as concerns about its balance sheet and growth trajectory continue.

LCID dropped to $9.55, down by 72% from its highest level in 2025.

This retreat may have a brief reprieve as it has formed a falling wedge pattern ahead of its earnings.

Lucid stock technical analysis points to a potential rebound after earnings

The daily timeframe chart shows that the LCID stock price has crashed in the past 12 months, moving from the 2024 high of $36.5 to the current $9.5.

As a result, the stock has slumped below all moving averages, a sign that bears are in control.

Also, the stock flipped the Supertrend indicator from green to red, while all oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD have continued to point downwards.

All these are bearish signs in technical analysis. However, a closer look shows that the stock has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines.

This pattern often leads to a strong bullish reversal.

Therefore, if this happens, the next key target to watch will be at $14.35, its highest swing on December 5. This target is about 50% above the current level.

On the other hand, a move below the lower side of the falling wedge pattern will invalidate the bullish outlook and point to more gains over time.

LCID stock chart | Source: TradingView 

Lucid Group to release its earnings this week 

The main catalyst for the Lucid stock price this week is its earnings, which will come out on Tuesday.

Wall Street analysts are largely bearish about the company, with Morgan Stanley analysts slashing their rating to underweight and the price target from $30 to $10.

Bank of America analysts also downgraded the stock rating to underperform, while Cantor Fitzgerald slashed it to neutral. As a result, the average stock target has dropped to $16.67.

There are two main concerns about Lucid Group. The most notable one is its balance sheet as the cash burn has gained steam.

Analysts believe that the company will need to raise additional cash later this year.

At the same time, there are concerns about its profitability, which has remained elusive in the past few years.

The average estimate among analysts is that its earnings per share (EPS) will come in at $2.67, up from $2.2 in the same period in 2024. The loss-per-share will be $9.6.

Still, Lucid has some potential catalysts, including its revenue surge and the robotaxi deal with Uber.

The average estimate among analysts is that its quarterly revenue jumped by 95% in the fourth quarter to $459 million, bringing the annual figure to $1.29 billion.

Also, analysts expect that the annual revenue will jump by 90% this year to $2.45 billion.

However, Lucid has a long record of missing analysts' estimates.

Also, it is unclear how the end of EV tax credits will impact its business this year.