Gold price analysis: How likely is a GLD breakout?

Gold price pulled back on Wednesday after four consecutive sessions in the green. Earlier in the day, it had topped Monday’s intraday high to trade at 5,252. At the time of writing, the bullion was at $5,159.

The 1.25% decline reflects profit-taking, even as economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to prop up the precious metal. An uptick in the US dollar also curbed gold price gains. 

Gold price steadies on the fresh wave of uncertainties

Gold price has remained subject to heightened volatility as the market gets caught between safe-haven demand and a stronger US dollar. On the one hand, the precious metal remained a preferred hedge against the flakiness in the US political scene. 

As of Tuesday, President Trump’s new global tariffs are in effect albeit a lower rate. This is after the Supreme Court ruling on Friday that invalidated most of his import levies. In reaction to the ruling, the US President announced a 10% global rate. However, the White House is said to be working on updating it to 15% in line with Trump’s latest announcement.

This chaos has investors concerned that the situation may revert to the trade war experienced in 2025 when major US trading partners chose to retaliate. As a conventional hedge against uncertainties, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.

Besides, the market has been keen on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to Air Force General Dan Caine, a top military adviser in the US government, a decision to strike Iran would be risky with immense repercussions. 

Nonetheless, a stronger US dollar has curbed the recent gold price gains. The greenback has found support in the mixed Fed signals as well as the fresh trade tensions. Trump’s intent to raise global tariffs to 15% has bolstered the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, though investors are cautious. 

This explains why the dollar index has lacked enough bullish momentum to break the resistance along the once steady support zone of $98. Furthermore, the latest FOMC meeting minutes highlighted some members’ hesitance on additional easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. 

GLD gold price technical analysis

The GLD gold ETF began the week on a high; recording gains for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday. On the one hand, the SPDR Gold Shares have had three straight weekly gains. However, a firmer US dollar has curbed its upside; holding it within a range. 

In the new week, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with uncertainties over US tariff policy, have supported GLD gold price at the over-three-week resistance zone of $470. The bulls are striving to attract more buyers to test the next target at $481. At the time of writing, the gold ETF was at $474.  

Past the current resistance level of $481, heightened bullish momentum would place GLD gold price on track to hit a one-month high at $495. On the flip side, a stronger US dollar may slightly ease gold’s safe-haven appeal; pulling GLD gold price to the support at $463. This cautiously bullish thesis is valid for as long as the asset holds steady above the short-term 25-day EMA at $453.