Rolls-Royce share price sinks into a correction: will it rebound to 1,500p?

Rolls-Royce share price has sunk into a technical correction after falling by 11% from its highest level this year as London companies retreat. The stock retreated to 1,295p on Friday, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 1,420p. This article explores whether it is safe to buy the current dip.

Why the Rolls-Royce share price has crashed

Rolls-Royce stock price has plunged in the past few days, mirroring the performance of other British stocks, with the FTSE 100 Index falling from £10,930 February 27 to the current £10,285.

The decline has accelerated amid the ongoing volatility in the Middle East, where the war between the United States and Iran continued during the weekend. Analysts believe that the crisis will go on for a while, a move that will impact its business.

Rolls-Royce’s business will be impacted as travel in the Middle East falls, with some major airlines announcing a reduction in trips. This is important as the company makes most of its money servicing engines through its TotalCare service.

The TotalCare service offers airlines all maintenance services, which allows them to focus on flying. These airlines pay per flying hour, which provides them with predictable costs. As such, any slowdown in the aviation industry will hit its revenues and profits.

On the positive side, there is a likelihood that Donald Trump will soon capitulate as crude oil prices soar and the US stock market tumbles. Such a move will lead to a rebound in most stocks that plunged during the war and a rebound to the aviation sector.

Rolls-Royce Holdings business is doing well 

The ongoing woes are happening as the business continues firing on all cylinders. Its most recent results showed that its business boomed last year, a trend that will continue this year.

The most recent results showed that Rolls-Royce’s revenue jumped to £20 billion last year as its operating profit surged from £2.46 billion to £3.46 billion.

The company’s other profits have continued rising, with the profit before tax rose to £3.3 billion. Its operating margin of 21.1% is slightly higher than GE Aerospace’s 20%.

Most importantly, the company has started returning money to its shareholders. It completed its £1 billion share buyback, the first time it did that in over ten years, and started paying a dividend for the first time in five years.

Rolls-Royce Holdings hopes to pay between £7 billion and £9 billion between 2026 and 2028. 

At the same time, the company is slowly becoming a major player in the growing data center industry through its power division. It is also investing heavily in the small modular reactor (SMR), which analysts believe will be a major player in the utility sector.

There are signs that Rolls-Royce Holdings is cheaper compared to GE Aerospace, its closest competitor. It has a forward PE ratio of 33, much lower than GE’s 43, and an EV-to-EBITDA of 21, lower than GE’s 30.

Rolls-Royce stock price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the Rolls-Royce stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few years. It moved from a low of 62p in 2022 to a high of 1,420p this year.

The stock has pulled back to the current 1,265p. It moved below the crucial support level at 1,307p, its highest swing in January this year.

On the positive side, it remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It also remains above the ascending trendline, which connects the lowest swings since November last year.

Therefore, the most likely Rolls-Royce share price outlook is bullish. It will likely be highly volatile in the next few days and then bounce back, potentially to the year-to-date high of 1,419p. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to 1,500p.