Evening digest: Aramco beats estimates, SpaceX IPO, Bitcoin rebounds

Global markets and geopolitics remain tightly intertwined as tensions in the Middle East ripple across energy, technology, and financial markets.

The Pentagon says the US is gaining ground in the Iran conflict even as fresh drone strikes raise regional risks.

Saudi Aramco beat profit estimates but warned the war could disrupt oil exports.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is weighing a blockbuster Nasdaq IPO, and Bitcoin has rebounded above $70,000 as easing oil prices revive risk appetite across global markets.

US claims momentum in Iran war

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Tuesday the "most concentrated day of strikes" yet in the US war on Iran, saying Tehran is "isolated and significantly losing."

His confident tone at the Pentagon press briefing echoed remarks made by President Trump a day earlier.

But even as Hegseth spoke, a drone attack attributed to Iran set fire to an oil refinery at the Ruwais Industrial Complex in Abu Dhabi, with no immediate casualties reported.

Oil prices, which had briefly surged past $120 a barrel on Monday, pulled back toward $90 after Trump hinted the conflict would end soon.

Aramco beats estimates but CEO warns Iran war clouds outlook

Saudi Aramco posted adjusted net income of $104.7 billion for 2025, beating analyst estimates despite a 12% year-on-year drop driven by weaker crude prices for most of the year.

Q4 adjusted profit came in at $25.1 billion, narrowly topping consensus.

The company maintained total shareholder distributions of $85.5 billion and declared a Q4 base dividend of $21.89 billion, a 3.5% increase from a year ago.

It also launched a $3 billion share buyback programme.

CEO Amin Nasser credited disciplined capital allocation for the resilient results.

But on the earnings call, he flagged fresh risks, an Iranian drone struck Aramco's Ras Tanura facility, raising fears over Gulf export disruptions just as oil prices touched $120 a barrel.

SpaceX eyes Nasdaq for largest IPO in history

Elon Musk's SpaceX is leaning toward listing on the Nasdaq rather than the New York Stock Exchange, according to four people familiar with the company's thinking.

The key condition: early entry into the Nasdaq 100 index, which SpaceX is treating as a prerequisite for any listing.

Nasdaq recently proposed a "Fast Entry" rule that would let a newly public megacap join the index within a month, a direct play to attract companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

SpaceX is targeting a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the sixth-largest US company by market cap.

The IPO could come as early as June. NYSE is also competing for the listing, and no final decision has been made.

Bitcoin bounces back above $70,000

Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 on Tuesday after President Trump signalled the US-Israeli conflict with Iran could end soon, reviving risk appetite across global markets.

The world's largest cryptocurrency rose 3.4% to $70,201 in Asian trading, recovering sharply from a weekend low of around $65,000.

The earlier selloff came as oil prices approached $120 a barrel, stoking global inflation fears and driving investors out of risk assets.

Oil pulled back to roughly $90 a barrel Tuesday after Trump hinted at potential sanctions relief and US Navy escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stocks also recovered, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining about 3%.

Still, traders stayed cautious, watching for fresh developments in the Middle East.