Here's how luxury stocks will perform if the Iran war subsides in April

The fragile recovery of European luxury equities, which investors hoped would stabilize following a mixed Lunar New Year, was decisively upended by the onset of the Iran War in 2026.

In recent weeks, the sector has seen about US$100 billion (approx. $139.4 billion) in market cap evaporate as geopolitical risk premia spiked and consumer sentiment soured. Titans including LVMH, Kering, Richemont, and Hermes, have retreated between 10% and 20% each.

While the Middle East represents some 6% of global luxury sales, it functions as a “vital growth” engine during a period of stagnation in other major markets.

However, analysts believe the European luxury stocks will rebound sharply as soon as the US-Iran conflict subsides.

According to them, the recent pullback isn’t a structural failure, but cyclical de-rating that actually offers a high-conviction entry point for the next market cycle.

Why are luxury stocks poised for a meaningful recovery?

In a recent note to clients, Deutsche Bank’s senior analyst Adam Cochrane said the primary catalyst for an expected post-war rally in luxury stocks hinges on valuation anomalies.

Major conglomerates are currently trading at huge discounts compared to their historical multiples, largely due to a risk premium that has decoupled share prices from fundamental earnings power.

While timing remains uncertain, Cochrane expects industry’s growth algorithm to eventually return, fueled particularly by a resurgence in US and Chinese demand.

Deutsche Bank maintained its “buy” rating on sector bellwether, adjusting the price target to €620, signaling the intrinsic value of the fashion giant remains robust despite wartime discount.

Investment firms more broadly have cut their earnings forecast in half to 3% for the first quarter. Still, the valuation landscape suggests significant upside once the macro outlook clears.

UBS – for example – sees potential recoveries of up to 40% in LVMH stock and 32% in Richemont.

According to its experts, once geopolitical uncertainty fades and investor sentiment normalizes, it will trigger a wave of institutional buying as funds rotate back into premium-quality discretionary stocks.

This will drive a rapid expansion of P/E multiples toward historical ranges, they concluded.

Luxury stocks to rally as travel retail resumes later in 2026

Wall Street believes a formal end to hostilities will serve as an immediate catalyst for operational normalization, particularly in high-margin regions.

The closure of key regional hubs has not only dented retail figures but also strained supply chains, with high-end manufacturers like Ferrari and Bentley previously forced to suspend shipments due to security concerns.

The resumption of these deliveries and the reopening of luxury travel retail in hubs like Dubai are expected to provide a concentrated boost to second-half revenue.

Because the Middle East – in recent years – has been one of the few “bright spots” in an otherwise struggling global landscape, its stabilization is critical for restoring investor confidence.

The return of wealthy tourists to the Gulf, who account for the majority of luxury spending in the region, will likely trigger a fast recovery in duty-free channels and reduce the elevated freight costs associated with wartime logistics.

This may further help luxury stocks rally again as the year unfolds.