Burry maintains Bearish Palantir bet despite Trump boost

Burry maintains Bearish Palantir bet despite Trump boost
Rivanshi Rakhrai
Apr 10, 2026, 13:22 P.M.

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PLTR long-dated puts

Sell/own downside via puts: buy June 17, 2027 $50 puts and Dec 19, 2026 $100 puts on Palantir (PLTR). Rationale: Burry’s thesis is valuation far above intrinsic value (stock ~$127 vs his “well under $50”), and the Trump boost is explicitly temporary—political headlines only delay the repricing. The long-dated structure targets a multi-quarter unwind rather than a one-week dip-buying bounce.

Key Risk: Palantir sustains fundamentals fast enough (revenue/FCF acceleration + credible margin expansion) that intrinsic value rises toward $100–$50, forcing a valuation re-rate higher despite defense tailwinds.

AI defense multiple compression

Short the peer group that trades on “AI software” optimism while PLTR is politically supported: sell/short AI software exposure via an ETF basket—e.g., short Invesco QQQ (QQQ) or specifically the AI software-heavy sleeve (use a proxy like SOXX for semis is wrong; keep it software/large-cap growth). Rationale: the article flags PLTR’s sensitivity to political commentary and that it’s still on track for a large weekly decline; that pattern typically spreads to adjacent “AI software” names when valuation is the core issue.

Key Risk: A broad AI-led risk-on rally lifts multiples across growth/AI software regardless of valuation concerns, compressing downside across the basket.

  • Burry holds long-dated puts, sees Palantir fundamentally overvalued.
  • Trump praise lifts stock briefly amid broader weekly decline.
  • Investor believes fair value is well below current share price.

Renowned investor Michael Burry has reaffirmed his bearish position on Palantir Technologies, even as a public endorsement from Donald Trump provided temporary support to the stock.

In a Substack post published on Friday, Burry revealed that he continues to hold long-dated put options against the artificial intelligence software firm.

The investor noted that he initially began shorting the stock in the fall of 2025 and has since rolled over his positions multiple times.

“I now own the June 17, 2027, Strike Price 50 Puts and the December 19, 2026, Strike Price 100 Puts.

I am not selling these today,” Burry wrote, underscoring his conviction in the trade.

Trump endorsement offers short-term boost

Burry’s comments came shortly after Trump publicly praised Palantir in a post on Truth Social, which helped the stock recover from intraday lows during Friday’s session.

“Palantir Technologies has proven to have great warfighting capabilities and equipment,” Trump wrote.

“Just ask our enemies!!!”

Despite the boost, the stock remained under pressure on a broader timeframe.

Shares were still on track for a roughly 13% weekly decline, extending losses for 2026 to approximately 28%.

The brief rally highlights the stock’s sensitivity to political commentary, particularly given its close ties to government and defence contracts.

Valuation concerns remain central to Burry’s thesis

Burry has maintained that Palantir’s valuation remains significantly inflated, even after recent declines.

The investor pointed out that the stock has weakened since reaching a peak near $200 last year, but continues to trade at levels he considers excessive.

He acknowledged the possibility of short-term upside, particularly following Trump’s comments, but reiterated his long-term bearish outlook.

“Trump’s post rallied the stock after the stock had fallen 18% the last three days.

The stock may catch a wind here. It has been selling off with software stocks.

As mentioned, I continue to hold the puts, as I believe the fundamental value of this company is well under $50/share,” Burry stated.

Palantir shares were trading around $127 on Friday, significantly above the level Burry believes reflects its intrinsic value.

Defence exposure and geopolitical factors in focus

Some market participants view Palantir as a potential beneficiary of the ongoing Iran war, given its extensive work with the US military and intelligence agencies.

The company has continued to secure new government contracts during Trump’s second administration, strengthening its position within the defence technology ecosystem.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp has also maintained regular engagement with the administration, signalling alignment despite earlier tensions.

Past criticism from Palantir leadership

Burry’s bearish stance has previously drawn criticism from Palantir’s leadership.

Last year, his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, disclosed short positions not only in Palantir but also in AI chipmaker Nvidia.

The disclosure prompted a sharp response from Karp, who described Burry’s bets as “super weird” and “batsh- crazy,” reflecting a clear divergence in views between the investor and the company’s leadership.

Outlook remains uncertain

While Trump’s endorsement has offered near-term support, Burry’s continued commitment to his bearish position underscores ongoing concerns about valuation and sustainability.

With geopolitical dynamics and government contracts influencing sentiment, Palantir’s trajectory remains closely watched by both supporters and sceptics in the market.