Qualcomm stock: can Q2 earnings push QCOM past its next big level?

Qualcomm stock (NASDAQ: QCOM) heads into Wednesday’s earnings with the market asking some familiar questions.

The investors will keep a close eye on the earnings report to assess if it can finally unlock the QCOM stock, or serve as another reminder that the shares have a ceiling.

The company is scheduled to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on April 29 after market close, with the conference call set for 1:45 p.m. Pacific time.

Options traders are pricing in a roughly 8.7% move for the Qualcomm stock into the event, a sign that the setup is still very much a two-way bet.

Qualcomm stock: What traders are really saying

An implied move is not a forecast; it is a measure of uncertainty.

When options prices imply a swing of about 8.7%, traders are paying up for protection because they see real upside and downside risk around the print.

That matters for Qualcomm stock because the company has already shown that a beat alone is not enough to calm investors.

In February, it topped expectations but still fell 9% in after-hours trading after issuing soft guidance tied to the memory-chip crunch.

The bar is not especially high, but it is delicate.

Analysts currently expect earnings of about $2.58 a share on revenue of roughly US$10.6 billion (approx. $14.8 billion), while Qualcomm itself guided to revenue of US$10.2 billion (approx. $14.2 billion) to US$11 billion (approx. $15.3 billion) and adjusted EPS of $2.45 to $2.65.

Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been cut by 4.4%, which suggests the market has quietly lowered its expectations ahead of the report.

Also read: Qualcomm stock price at risk of a crash despite OpenAI partnership rumors

Smartphones are still the weak spot

The clearest drag remains the handset business.

Qualcomm said in February that a global memory chip shortage was weighing on smartphone production, especially in China.

The company said that the advanced smartphone chip shipments were expected to fall 7% in 2026.

That is a major headwind because mobile chips still account for the bulk of its revenue, so a strong diversification story has to coexist with a strained core market.

Still, the bull case has not disappeared.

Qualcomm said in March that its automotive revenue reached US$1.1 billion (approx. $1.5 billion) and that its design-win pipeline stood at US$45 billion (approx. $62.7 billion).

This is a sign that the company is building a larger second act outside phones.

Qualcomm and Wayve agreed in March to work together on an integrated AI driving system, while Qualcomm Ventures joined AMD and Arm in a US$60 million (approx. $83.6 million) investment in Wayve in April.

The investors are not seeing them as speculative slide-deck themes, but as concrete bets on a multi-year vehicle platform opportunity.

The high-level QCOM needs to clear

For Qualcomm, the real issue is not whether it can post a strong quarter.

It is whether the company can finally persuade investors that the business mix is changing fast enough to deserve a higher multiple.

The Qualcomm stock has been pressured in 2026 by worries over memory costs, China demand and the longer-term threat from Apple’s modem transition, even as the company returns capital aggressively through a newly announced US$20 billion (approx. $27.9 billion) buyback and a higher quarterly dividend.

That is why Wednesday’s call matters so much.

Investors will be listening first for whether automotive revenue and pipeline commentary hold firm.

Secondly, the spotlight will be on any signs that edge AI and Snapdragon-driven device demand are picking up, and third for whether management says anything that deepens the China concern.