Intel stock is up 200%: is it too late for investors to jump in?

Intel stock’s NASDAQ:INTC comeback has been one of the year’s biggest market surprises.

The stock was trading around $129 on Tuesday, after briefly touching an intraday high of $133.48, and it had already closed at a record $124.92 on Friday.

That is a remarkable turnaround for a company that spent years as one of Wall Street’s most frustrating names.

The rally has been driven by better earnings, a brighter foundry outlook and a wave of strategic support that has changed how investors view Intel’s future.

The question now is not whether the next step is still higher, or most of the good news is already in the price.

Four reasons Intel stopped being a joke stock

The first driver is the turnaround, as under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has been cutting costs, refocusing the business on foundry and AI server CPUs, and trying to restore credibility after years of execution problems.

The second is strategic backing.

In August 2025, the Trump administration converted unpaid CHIPS Act grants into a near-10% equity stake, and later that year Nvidia said it would invest US$5 billion (approx. $7 billion) in Intel.

The developments gave the market a powerful signal that the company still matters to US industrial policy and the AI supply chain.

The third catalyst was the Q1 2026 earnings report. Intel said revenue rose 7% year over year to US$13.6 billion (approx. $19 billion), while data center and AI revenue climbed 22% to US$5.1 billion (approx. $7.1 billion).

The company also said its second-quarter revenue would come in above Wall Street expectations.

The fourth catalyst came as Apple and Intel reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some chips for Apple devices.

Bank of America estimates that, if the relationship scales, it could eventually translate into about US$10 billion (approx. $13.9 billion) in annual foundry sales by 2030.

Mizuho’s Jordan Klein captured the mood earlier in the year when he described Intel as a name few investors seemed interested in owning.

Why Bank of America is still saying sell

Even after lifting its price target to $96 from $56, Bank of America kept an Underperform rating on Intel.

The bank’s view is simple: the market has already priced in too much of the good news.

In its note, BofA said the Apple deal is not yet in its formal model, warned that any foundry ramp would still take years of capital spending and qualification, and said gross margins would remain pressured by depreciation, low yields and startup costs.

The bank also argued that Intel’s foundry breakeven target could slip by one to two years.

In other words, the story has improved, but the balance sheet and execution risks have not disappeared.

That caution shows up in valuation too.

StockAnalysis puts the average Intel price target at $65.44, with 32 analysts in coverage, which implies roughly 49% downside from Tuesday’s share price.

Morningstar’s latest fair value estimate is $90, still well below the market price.

So while the rally has made Intel look like a comeback story, much of Wall Street still sees a stock that is running ahead of fundamentals.

Intel stock: Is it too late?

The answer depends on the investor’s horizon as for traders, the risks are obvious.

Intel is now priced like a company that has already solved its turnaround, even though foundry execution is still ahead.

For longer-term believers, the bull case is that Intel is only beginning to prove out a much bigger transformation, and that strategic support from Washington, Nvidia and potentially Apple could keep re-rating the stock.

That is why some bullish firms remain above the market, with targets as high as $118, even while the broader Street stays far more cautious.