Ethereum eyes recovery above $2,300: Check forecast

Ethereum ETH is attempting to recover above the $2,300 level on Friday after a week of declining network activity. 

At press time, Ether is trading at $2,238, down by 1% in the last 24 hours. However, the coin could surge higher amid improved network activity. 

Ethereum’s active addresses continue to rise

Active addresses, which track the number of wallets sending and receiving tokens or interacting with smart contracts, have risen over the past week.

This latest development comes after a steady decline the previous week.

According to CryptoQuant, while the growth appears positive on the surface, it wasn't accompanied by a subsequent rise in transaction counts, which measure the volume of user activity on the blockchain. 

The data shows that transaction counts declined sharply over the past week by roughly 1 million, before slightly picking up in the past few days.

The divergence between active addresses and transaction counts suggests that the network remains quiet, with the user base not driving usage at the moment.

The weakened network activity is also seen in Ethereum's proof-of-stake participation.

The CryptoQuant data also shows that staking inflows have dropped by more than 80% over the past week, with the total value staked declining by roughly 100K ETH to 39.01 million ETH.

The staking decline comes amid community discussions around a potential reduction in staking rewards. 

On-chain data also shows Ethereum is facing selling pressure in recent days amid rising exchange deposits and exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows.

Ethereum price forecast: ETH eyes the 50-day EMA

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish despite the broader crypto market recovering from its recent selloff. 

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is holding a neutral to slightly capped tone as it consolidates between key moving averages. 

At the moment, Ethereum’s price stands below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $2,274, which lends nearby support.

Furthermore, Ethereum remains below the 20-day EMA near $2,306 and the longer-term 100-day EMA around $2,351, signaling overhead supply limiting upside attempts.

Momentum is mixed, with traders undecided about ETH’s next direction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 43 and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) slipping toward the oversold band, suggesting waning bullish pressure but not yet a decisive bearish breakdown.

If the bearish trend persists, initial support would be encountered at the 50-day EMA, followed by a more solid horizontal floor around $2,211 and then $2,108 if selling deepens.

A daily candle close below these levels could see Ethereum retest the deeper support levels at $1,909 and $1,741.

However, if the rally resumes,  immediate resistance lies at the 20-day EMA around $2,306, followed by the 100-day EMA near $2,351 and the horizontal cap at roughly $2,389.

A decisive close above these zones would ease the current cap and allow ETH to surge toward the higher resistance band at $2,746.