Why is XRP stuck below $1.38 despite signs of whale buying?

XRP has managed a mild recovery after briefly slipping toward the lower end of its short-term range.

At press time, the token was trading around $1.35, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours.

Despite the slight bounce, broader momentum remains bearish.

XRP is down 2.6% over the past 7 days, 8.0% over 14 days, and 5.6% over the last month, showing that recent recovery attempts have not yet shifted the wider trend.

On a yearly basis, the asset is still trading about 42.5% lower, highlighting that the longer-term structure remains under pressure even as short-term stabilisation emerges.

XRP stuck in consolidation

The latest price movement reinforces a clear technical pattern: XRP continues to trade within a compressed range.

The 7-day structure shows movement between $1.31 and $1.38, while the broader consolidation zone remains between $1.30 and $1.55.

This has created a market environment where both buyers and sellers are struggling to establish control.

During the most recent dip, XRP briefly tested the $1.33 support area, which has now acted as a short-term floor.

Bulls stepped in around this level, preventing further decline and pushing the price back toward $1.35.

However, upside movement has been limited, with repeated rejection near $1.36, suggesting that immediate resistance is already forming at the top of the current intraday range.

Trading activity remains steady, with 24-hour volume at approximately $1.19 billion, indicating consistent participation but no strong breakout momentum.

The lack of expansion in volume aligns with the tight price structure, where volatility remains compressed and directional conviction is limited.

Sentiment shifts toward fear as accumulation signals persist

Market sentiment around XRP has tilted toward caution, with fear returning after recent attempts to stabilise.

Social sentiment data shows a near-balanced ratio of roughly 1.1 bullish comments for every bearish comment, a level often associated with uncertainty rather than conviction.

This type of sentiment environment has historically appeared during consolidation phases rather than established uptrends.

At the same time, several on-chain signals suggest that larger market participants have not fully exited positions.

Significant XRP outflows from major exchanges, including Binance, have been recorded, indicating that some holders are moving assets into longer-term storage rather than selling into short-term weakness.

These flows have been interpreted by market participants as signs of accumulation during periods of low sentiment.

XRP price forecast

The current structure places immediate attention on a narrow technical zone.

Resistance is forming between $1.36 and $1.38, while stronger resistance remains near $1.45 to $1.50, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts.

A sustained move above the upper boundary would be required to signal a stronger directional shift.

On the downside, the $1.33 level remains the nearest support and has already been tested during recent trading.

A break below this level would expose the broader support zone around $1.30, which has been repeatedly highlighted as a key threshold for maintaining the current consolidation structure.