Brent crude rebounds from four-month low amid fresh US-Iran strikes

Oil prices rose on Monday after fresh US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz revived fears that the fragile ceasefire in the Gulf may not be strong enough to keep energy flows moving smoothly.

Brent crude climbed about 0.8% to $72.57 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.3% to $70.11.

The rebound came after Brent posted its steepest weekly fall in a month, as traders had started to price in a faster recovery in Gulf shipping.

Tensions flare near Hormuz again

The immediate trigger was another flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a major share of global oil and gas shipments.

US Central Command said American forces carried out additional strikes against multiple Iranian targets on June 27 after a drone hit the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku near the strait.

CENTCOM said the tanker was carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil.

The US said its strikes targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defence sites, drone storage facilities and minelayer capabilities.

The weekend also brought reports of drone and missile activity involving Bahrain and Kuwait, adding to the sense that the ceasefire is still vulnerable to sudden escalation.

WTI had only just settled below $70 on Friday, its lowest close since February 27, the day before the war began.

Monday’s move showed how quickly the market can snap back when tankers become part of the conflict again.

A fragile truce under pressure

The latest price move is really about trust.

The US and Iran had reached an interim arrangement aimed at easing tensions and restoring safe passage through Hormuz.

But the past few days have followed a familiar pattern: an attack on shipping, a military response, fresh threats, then another attempt to restart talks.

As per the latest reports, the US and Iran agreed to halt recent hostilities and renew talks over their dispute around the Strait.

A US official said both sides had agreed to “stand down for now” and allow vessels to move freely, while technical discussions continue.

Still, the market is no longer treating the ceasefire as clean or settled.

The attacks have reminded traders that a political agreement on paper does not automatically clear mines, remove military risk, or restore shipping confidence.

ING analysts said there is still “plenty of risk” facing the oil market, even as investors focus on what a recovery in flows could mean for global supply.

They also warned that the market’s current calm “clearly leaves significant upside risk” if the supply recovery proves slow.

That is the central tension. Diplomacy is still alive, but the oil market has been reminded that the water remains dangerous.