Is SpaceX stock a bargain after its 32% post-IPO drop?
AI Sentiment: 28/100 Bearish
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Buy SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the next major supply wave—use the period when employee/insider lockups expire later this year. The article flags a small public float, meaning price swings are driven by supply/demand, not fundamentals. If the stock sells off on “more shares available” fear while Starlink keeps compounding, you get a valuation reset without a business reset.
Key Risk: The lockup-driven selling coincides with a real deterioration in Starlink growth or margins, so the drop reflects fundamentals, not just supply.
Sell short SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). The stock is down ~32% but still trades around 107x 2025 sales with group-level losses—priced for “years of huge execution wins.” Morningstar’s view is that it looks overvalued in almost any near-term scenario. The near-term catalyst is mostly mechanical (index/ETF buying), which can fade quickly once the forced demand is done, leaving valuation and losses as the dominant drivers.
Key Risk: Starlink cash flow accelerates faster than expected and the market starts paying a much lower multiple for SPCX because profitability becomes clearly visible.
- SpaceX stock has fallen 32% from its June 16 intraday high.
- Shares still trade above the $135 IPO price despite the pullback.
- Starlink and index demand support bulls, but valuation risk remains.
SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX has had a wild first few weeks as a public company.
The shares, priced at $135 in the company’s record June 12 IPO, surged to an intraday high of $225.64 by June 16, and then slid to around $153 by June 27.
That is a drop of roughly 32% from the peak, even though the stock is still above its IPO price.
SpaceX stock: Not necessarily a bargain
The first thing investors need to separate is price from value.
A stock falling 32% can feel cheap because it is no longer trading at its recent high. But that does not automatically mean the valuation makes sense.
As per market data, SpaceX was still trading at about 107 times 2025 sales after the pullback.
That is an extreme multiple, even by the standards of AI and space-infrastructure stocks. Nvidia, by comparison, recently traded at roughly 21 times sales.
The financial picture also shows why some investors are cautious. SpaceX lost US$4.9 billion (approx. $6.8 billion) in 2025, even as revenue reached US$18.7 billion (approx. $26.1 billion).
The business is growing fast, led by Starlink and its launch dominance, but it is not yet profitable at the group level.
That is the core bear-case argument. SpaceX may be one of the most exciting companies ever to hit the public market, but the stock is still priced for years of huge execution wins.
Why Morningstar says wait
Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens has one of the clearest cautious views on the stock.
The analyst gave the company credit for its launch cost advantage, Starlink’s scale and the possibility of orbital AI infrastructure. It still comes out well below where the market is trading the stock.
Owens wrote that SpaceX shares are likely to look “overvalued in almost any scenario, at least in the near term”.
Morningstar also said long-term investors may get “more margin of safety” later, when lockups expire and more shares become available for sale.
That lockup point is important as SpaceX has a small public float, meaning only a limited portion of its shares can currently trade.
When supply is tight and demand is intense, prices can swing violently.
As more insider and employee shares become eligible for sale later this year, the market will get a better test of where natural demand really sits.
Bull case still standing
None of this means SpaceX is an empty story.
The company dominates the global space launch. As per analyst estimates, SpaceX launched 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth in 2025, nearly 10 times more than its nearest competitor.
Starlink is another pillar of the bull case. The satellite broadband business has become SpaceX’s clearest path to near-term cash generation, helped by its ability to launch satellites at in-house cost.
Starlink is expected to remain the company’s main cash-flow engine in the medium term, the analysts noted.
Index demand may also support the shares in the short term as SpaceX is being added to Russell indexes and will join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, forcing passive funds that track those benchmarks to buy the stock.
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