Oil price jumps on fresh US-Iran strikes, but traders are missing this signal

Oil prices rose again on Thursday after fresh US strikes on Iran revived fears of a deeper disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude climbed about 1% to around $78.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to about $74.26.

The move added to a sharp rally earlier in the week after renewed tanker attacks and Washington’s retaliation ended hopes that the US-Iran truce would hold.

But beneath the price spike, a quieter signal is worth watching as analysts had just started cutting 2026 oil forecasts before the latest flare-up.

Fresh strikes reignite the fear trade

The immediate driver is geopolitical risk as the US launched new military strikes against Iran after attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military said the strikes were aimed at keeping the strait open to maritime traffic.

As per local reports, a Qatari LNG carrier, the Al Rekayyat, was stranded off Oman after being hit by a projectile that caused a fire in its engine room.

The cargo was intact and crew members were evacuated, but the incident raised alarm because it was the first time a Qatari LNG ship had been hit in the latest conflict.

A Saudi crude tanker and another Liberia-flagged supertanker were also damaged, while maritime authorities raised the threat level for vessels transiting Hormuz to “severe.”

That is why crude is reacting even though the price move is not explosive.

Traders are adding back some of the war premium, but not enough to fully reverse the bearish shift that had begun forming in the market.

The signal traders might be missing

The overlooked signal is that the analyst community had turned more cautious on oil just before the latest strikes.

A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts, published on June 30, cut the 2026 Brent forecast to $84.50 a barrel from $90.44 a month earlier.

It was the first downward revision since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases. The same poll cut the WTI forecast to $79.49 from $84.63.

That matters because it shows smart money was leaning bearish before the fresh military headlines hit.

The argument was not that geopolitical risk had disappeared, but that the physical market was slowly healing as Hormuz flows recovered and fears of the worst supply disruptions eased.

UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller said much of the geopolitical risk premium in oil has already faded, with the return of Middle East supply flows and softer demand likely to limit any further gains.

LBBW’s Frank Schallenberger took a similar view, arguing that if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalises, the market could shift back into surplus, keeping pressure on prices through the second half of 2026.

BNP Paribas’s Aldo Spanjer has framed the recent move less as panic buying and more as a stock-rebuilding phase.

According to recent market commentary citing his view, importers are likely to step back in as lower prices encourage them to replenish depleted inventories, with Brent expected to end the year near $80 and trade broadly between $75 and $85 into 2027.