Why is Bitcoin stuck near $62K as oil, Fed and Strategy fears collide?

Bitcoin has retreated to around $62,000 after failing to hold above $64,000, with rising geopolitical tensions, expectations of higher US interest rates and renewed concerns over Strategy's Bitcoin sales weighing on market sentiment.

According to market data, Bitcoin BTC is trading just above $62,000 after falling nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, extending its pullback from this week's high above $64,000. 

The decline comes as investors continue reducing exposure to risk assets while uncertainty builds across global markets.

Pressure on Bitcoin has not come from crypto alone.

A selloff in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks, fresh gains in oil prices, and cautious positioning ahead of the US Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes have all contributed to the latest downturn.

Military tensions between the United States and Iran have added to those concerns.

Following US strikes on Iranian sites after attacks on commercial vessels, President Donald Trump declared the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "over," sending Brent crude from about $68 to $74 per barrel within a week. 

Higher energy prices have revived inflation concerns, reducing expectations that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy soon.

Market pricing now suggests investors largely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting, although traders continue watching the central bank's language on inflation for clues about future policy.

Elsewhere, uncertainty has spread beyond the United States.

President Trump called for ending US trade with Spain during the NATO summit after criticising the country's defence spending commitments, while Japan's 30-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level in decades as debate over changes to the Bank of Japan's policy mandate unsettled investors.

As such, these developments have encouraged traders to reduce exposure to volatile assets, leaving Bitcoin unable to match the recovery seen in US equities after Monday's selloff.

Another source of concern has come from Strategy's treasury operations.

The company disclosed sales of 3,588 BTC worth approximately $216 million outside its previously announced $1.25 billion Monetization Program, surprising investors who had expected the programme to remain the primary source of funding.

Strategy's filings also show the company carries roughly $1.76 billion in annual dividend obligations alongside more than $3.8 billion in convertible debt, with the earliest call date arriving before April 2027. 

Those figures have raised concerns that additional Bitcoin sales could become more frequent if the company needs to manage its balance sheet.

Against this backdrop, reports have emerged that the Reserve Bank of India has continued backing policies that favour banning cryptocurrency activity in the country, including limiting banks' exposure to digital assets.

The report also contributed to reinforcing bearish sentiment among traders, who are already navigating geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin price analysis

According to data from analytics platform Hyblock, Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta showed buyers dominating on Monday as futures traders accumulated roughly $585 million and spot markets added another $119 million while Bitcoin climbed above $64,000.

By Wednesday, however, sentiment had reversed, with futures markets recording nearly $500 million in net selling and spot markets contributing another $86 million in sell volume.

Bitcoin’s funding rates and open interest have also declined as traders trimmed leveraged positions as of press time.

BTC OI-weighted funding rate. Source: Coinglass.

As Bitcoin fell, long liquidations reached roughly $52M over the past 24 hours compared with roughly $20 million in short liquidations, indicating most forced selling has come from bullish positions.

At the moment, the 24-hour Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows the largest concentration of short liquidations sitting between roughly $62,800 and $63,200, with additional liquidity extending toward $64,000-$65,000. 

Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass.

A sustained move into that zone could force short sellers to cover their positions and accelerate an upside move.

On the downside, another sizeable cluster of long liquidations remains concentrated around $61,000-$61,300, with additional liquidity building closer to the $60,000 psychological level. 

A break below that area could trigger another round of forced selling.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, leaving the prevailing trend tilted lower despite the recent rebound from below $60,000.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The 20-day EMA near $62,500 is the first resistance traders are watching, while the 50-day EMA around $65,400 aligns closely with a high-volume region identified by the Volume Profile Visible Range indicator. 

Reclaiming that zone would improve the short-term technical structure, although resistance becomes stronger toward the 100-day EMA near $69,000.

For now, price continues to oscillate between support near $60,000-$61,000 and resistance around $63,000-$65,000. 

Unless Bitcoin can reclaim those moving averages while macroeconomic conditions improve, the combination of geopolitical risks, cautious Fed expectations and concerns over Strategy's treasury activity could keep the market under pressure in the sessions ahead.