Intel stock could be at risk of hitting $75 as Q2 earnings loom

Intel, one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Index this year, has lost momentum in recent weeks.

The stock has fallen 32% from its year-to-date high and is hovering near its lowest level since May.

That weakness will face a crucial test later this week when the chipmaker reports its quarterly financial results.

Intel has made substantial progress

INTC stock has enjoyed a remarkable rally this year. Despite its recent pullback, the shares remain up 138% year to date, making Intel one of the best-performing companies in the S&P 500 Index. 

The surge has lifted its market capitalization to more than $477 billion, marking a dramatic turnaround for a company that was struggling with declining market share and weak financial performance just a few years ago.

Intel’s surge has been driven by several factors, including its balance sheet improvements.

The Trump administration and Nvidia took a stake in the company, helping it to shore up its finances.

Intel has also benefited from the ongoing demand for CPUs as AI agents become more popular.

It also boosted investor confidence by reaching a deal with Apollo Global to repurchase the 49% equity interest in its Irish fab joint venture. The deal is valued at $14.2 billion and is funded by cash on hand and new debt. 

Most recently, Intel has inked major deals, including with SpaceX and Tesla. It has become a partner of Elon Musk’s Terafab project.

In it, the company will provide its 14A manufacturing technology to design, fabricate, and package chips. 

Intel will also manufacture some of Apple’s chips in its Texas plant. While the real production is years away, the deal is a validation for Intel’s turnaround. 

In another important development, Google said that it would use Intel’s Xeon processors to power its cloud infrastructure.

While the size of the deal was not revealed, chances are that it will be worth billions of dollars.

Intel to release earnings on Thursday

Therefore, the upcoming earnings report will provide more information about its turnaround.

Analysts expect these results to show that Intel’s revenue jumped by 12% to $14.42 billion, helped by CPU demand. 

In his statement after the last earnings report, Lip-Bu Tan, the CEO, said: 

“The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings.”

Analysts are largely bullish on Intel despite its hefty valuation. Yahoo Finance data shows that the average target among analysts is $106.70, up modestly from the current $95.

Intel stock price technical analysis

INTC stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that INTC stock has slumped from the year-to-date high of $142.6 to the current $95.

It has formed a double-top pattern at $132.47. This pattern had a false breakout that pushed it to the highest point this year.

It has now moved below the Major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. Also, it has slipped below $98.93, its lowest level on June 5.

Therefore, the price will likely drop further in the near term, potentially to the strong pivot, reverse level of $75.