Invezz

Silver price rebounds from sharp losses as markets assess Fed policy

Silver price rebounds from sharp losses as markets assess Fed policy
Rivanshi Rakhrai
Jul 24, 2026, 02:35 A.M.

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SLV (Silver ETF)

Buy SLV. Silver just sold off >4% and is rebounding, but the bigger driver is still rate expectations: if the Fed-hike odds don’t rise further, silver’s “no yield” discount should ease and the rebound can extend. Oil/geopolitics are also supportive for commodities, helping silver stabilize while markets digest the shock.

Key Risk: Fed-hike odds keep climbing (hawkish repricing), pushing real yields higher and crushing silver’s rebound.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

Sell DXY. The article ties silver weakness to rising expectations for Fed hikes; if that narrative stalls after the initial repricing, the dollar should soften, which typically lifts silver. A weaker dollar also offsets the “higher rates” headwind for non-yielding metals.

Key Risk: The Fed narrative accelerates and the dollar strengthens further, driven by sustained hawkish data or guidance.

  • Silver recovers slightly after falling more than 4% in previous session.
  • Higher oil prices are lifting expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
  • Rising Middle East tensions continue to shape market sentiment and silver demand.

Silver prices edged higher on Friday after suffering losses of more than 4% during the previous trading session.

The precious metal was trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours.

Despite the modest recovery, silver remains under pressure from changing expectations around US monetary policy.

Higher oil prices linked to rising tensions in the Middle East are strengthening market expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The prospect of higher interest rates could weigh on silver.

The metal does not provide a yield, making it potentially less attractive when expectations for interest rates rise.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in an estimated 35.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.

Markets are also pricing in an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point rate hike in September.

The changing rate expectations are adding pressure to silver, even as the metal attempts to recover from its sharp decline in the previous session.

Higher oil prices add to rate hike expectations

The rise in oil prices has become an important factor influencing expectations around US interest rates.

Higher oil prices are tied to growing tensions in the Middle East.

The increase in oil prices is contributing to stronger expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.

This has created additional pressure for silver, which is considered a non-yielding asset.

Silver's latest move comes as traders assess the impact of the broader geopolitical situation on markets.

While the metal has managed to recover some ground after its previous session losses, expectations of tighter monetary policy remain a potential headwind.

The CME FedWatch figures highlight the shift in market expectations.

Middle East tensions remain in focus

Geopolitical tensions have also continued to intensify.

The reported attacks allegedly took place because the tankers were accused of violating a blockade.

The developments have added to concerns over the security situation in the region and contributed to the wider escalation of tensions.

The situation has also involved direct US military action.

The US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran.

The continued military activity has kept the Middle East firmly in focus for financial markets.

Developments in the region are being closely monitored as traders assess their potential impact on oil prices and broader market sentiment.

Investors are likely to remain focused on any further developments involving Iran, the Houthis and the United States.

For silver, the combination of geopolitical tensions and changing interest rate expectations presents competing forces.

However, rising expectations for higher US interest rates could continue to limit gains in the non-yielding precious metal.