Alphabet, Tesla earnings set a nervous tone: all eyes on Meta, Amazon and Microsoft

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest growth story in global technology, but this week's earnings from Alphabet and Tesla have reminded investors that building the infrastructure behind that boom is becoming increasingly expensive.

And, investors are not okay with this.

While both companies reported robust revenue growth and highlighted expanding demand for AI-related products and services, their results also reinforced concerns that the industry's largest players are spending at an unprecedented pace, squeezing free cash flow and raising questions about when those investments will begin generating meaningful financial returns.

The concern was evident immediately after the results.

Alphabet shares fell 7.1% on Thursday, while Tesla plunged 14.5%, marking the electric vehicle maker's worst single-day decline since March 2025.

The sharp market reaction has also set the tone for the next wave of Big Tech earnings, with Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon due to report next week.

Investors are expected to closely examine not only revenue growth but also whether AI spending is accelerating faster than profits.

Tesla delivers record revenue growth but margins remain under pressure

Tesla's second-quarter report illustrated the growing divide between strong top-line expansion and increasing costs.

Revenue rose 26% year over year to US$28.2 billion (approx. $39.4 billion), comfortably exceeding the company's compiled consensus estimate of US$27.6 billion (approx. $38.4 billion).

Vehicle deliveries also reached a record 480,126 units during the quarter, up 25% from a year earlier.

Automotive revenue increased 23% to US$20.5 billion (approx. $28.6 billion), while energy generation and storage revenue climbed 13% to US$3.1 billion (approx. $4.4 billion).

Despite those gains, profitability deteriorated significantly.

Adjusted earnings came in at 33 cents per share, well below analyst expectations of 55 cents.

Operating expenses surged 47% to US$4.4 billion (approx. $6.1 billion), including a 49% jump in research and development spending to US$2.4 billion (approx. $3.3 billion).

Operating income declined 57% year over year to US$398 million (approx. $554.8 million), leaving Tesla with an operating margin of just 1.4%, compared with 4.1% during the same period last year.

The biggest concern for investors was capital expenditure.

Tesla increased capex by 142% from a year earlier to US$5.8 billion (approx. $8.1 billion) during the quarter, pushing free cash flow to negative US$1.1 billion (approx. $1.5 billion).

The company also said it expects to spend more than US$25 billion (approx. $34.9 billion) in capital expenditures this year.

Musk insists spending will generate long-term returns

Chief Executive Elon Musk sought to reassure investors that the elevated spending reflects investments designed to transform Tesla beyond electric vehicles.

"This is a massive capex year. I'm confident that all the things that we're investing in will yield incredible returns. Really, maybe the best capex returns that we've ever seen," Musk said during the earnings call.

Much of that investment is being directed toward Tesla's next-generation semiconductor production capabilities and its Optimus humanoid robot programme.

The company said it is "installing the first-generation lines for Optimus" and expects production to begin soon.

For Musk, those initiatives represent future revenue streams that could ultimately outweigh the near-term financial pressure currently weighing on margins.

Alphabet posts record cloud growth but spending dominates investor attention

Alphabet delivered another quarter of exceptional cloud performance, but investors focused instead on the scale of the company's AI investment plans.

Google Cloud revenue surged 82% year over year to US$24.8 billion (approx. $34.6 billion) during the quarter ended June, significantly outperforming analysts' expectations of approximately 64% growth, according to LSEG.

The performance reinforced Google's growing position in enterprise AI infrastructure, with cloud demand continuing to accelerate as businesses expand adoption of generative AI applications.

However, those strong results were overshadowed by another increase in capital expenditure guidance.

Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi said Alphabet now expects capital expenditure of between US$195 billion (approx. $271.8 billion) and US$205 billion (approx. $285.8 billion) during 2026, compared with previous guidance of US$180 billion (approx. $250.9 billion) to US$190 billion (approx. $264.9 billion).

The revised outlook also exceeded analysts' expectations of roughly US$188 billion (approx. $262.1 billion), according to Visible Alpha.

Perhaps more striking was Alphabet's free cash flow.

The company reported negative free cash flow of US$5.9 billion (approx. $8.2 billion) during the quarter, reversing nearly US$25 billion (approx. $34.9 billion) in positive free cash flow generated during the same period a year earlier.

Alphabet says AI demand continues to outpace available computing capacity

Alphabet executives argued the spending increase simply reflects overwhelming customer demand.

"The increase in the range is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand," Ashkenazi told analysts.

She said Google continues to face supply constraints despite multiple quarters of infrastructure expansion.

"We're still in a supply-constrained environment," she said. "I think we've said this now for multiple quarters in a row, and we are seeing very strong demand both from external cloud customers as well as across the business."

Ashkenazi, however, acknowledged that free cash flow will likely remain under pressure as Alphabet continues building technical infrastructure.

"We expect the free cash flow will remain under pressure, driven by our investments in technical infrastructure, which enables us to capitalize on the AI opportunity and continue to drive attractive returns," she said.

Analysts warn spending is running ahead of cash generation

While operational performance received widespread praise, analysts questioned how sustainable current spending levels may become.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh said Alphabet's financial results left little room for criticism operationally but warned that future capital expenditure could keep cash flow negative.

"Right now they are probably US$10 billion (approx. $13.9 billion)-US$15 billion (approx. $20.9 billion) free cash flow for this year, next year if this goes to US$300 billion (approx. $418.2 billion) there is no way they're going to be positive free cash flow," Singh said on a Bloomberg Podcasts episode.

He argued that investors increasingly want stronger earnings contributions from Search, YouTube and Alphabet's other businesses instead of relying primarily on Google Cloud.

Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com, expressed similar concerns.

"After a negative cash flow quarter, the new raise in capex does not sit well for Alphabet," he said.

"The market's most reliable cash generators are now spending more than they bring in. As long as revenue keeps accelerating, investors will tolerate it. But capital has a real cost again, and the room for error is shrinking every quarter."

AI boom reshapes Big Tech's financial profile

The spending surge reflects a broader transformation underway across the technology sector.

For years, companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon generated enormous free cash flow that comfortably funded acquisitions, buybacks and new product development.

The AI race has changed that equation.

Industry capital expenditure is expected to exceed US$700 billion (approx. $975.8 billion) this year as companies rapidly expand data centres, purchase AI chips and develop proprietary infrastructure.

As a result, investors are becoming less focused on revenue growth alone and increasingly attentive to whether AI-related investments can ultimately produce returns that exceed their cost.

That shift is expected to dominate discussions when Microsoft, Meta and Amazon publish earnings next week.

Investors await Microsoft's, Meta's and Amazon's next move

Alphabet's results have heightened expectations that rival technology companies could also increase investment plans.

Both Meta and Amazon shares declined alongside Alphabet following Wednesday's report.

"The risk is tilted towards further increases, particularly while Microsoft and others remain capacity-constrained," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets.

"But investors will increasingly focus on how much of that cash must be reinvested simply to remain competitive — and whether AI revenue can grow faster than capital expenditure, depreciation and operating costs."

Consensus estimates suggest Alphabet and Amazon could continue burning cash into 2026, while Meta's free cash flow is expected to decline 95.7% to just US$1.9 billion (approx. $2.6 billion).

Microsoft is forecast to generate US$25.4 billion (approx. $35.4 billion) in free cash flow during its current fiscal year ending next June, compared with an estimated US$58.7 billion (approx. $81.9 billion) during the previous financial year.

Meanwhile, capital expenditure relative to revenue is projected to rise sharply across the sector.

Meta's capex-to-revenue ratio is expected to increase to 54.9% from 35.9%, Alphabet's to 41% from 23%, Microsoft's to 45% from 31%, and Amazon's to 25% from 18%.

Cloud competition intensifies

The latest earnings also underscored shifting competitive dynamics within cloud computing.

Google Cloud's 82% revenue growth substantially outpaced expectations and highlighted the division's rapid expansion.

Alphabet executives said customer demand has become so strong that the company plans to rent additional third-party data centre capacity despite the negative impact on margins.

Analysts say the performance raises pressure on both Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.

AWS is expected to report revenue growth of 31.04%, accelerating from 28.4% during the previous quarter.

Microsoft Azure is forecast to deliver growth of 39.98%, broadly matching the prior quarter's 40%.

Competition could intensify further after reports that Meta is discussing renting computing capacity to Anthropic, adding another major buyer to an increasingly crowded AI infrastructure market.

"As compute becomes more available and models become cheaper, cloud capacity may look increasingly interchangeable. That could force providers to spend more while accepting lower returns," said Lale Akoner, global market strategist at eToro in a Reuters report.

Intel also highlights AI infrastructure demand

Although not part of the so-called Magnificent Seven, Intel also reinforced the industry's AI narrative this week.

The chipmaker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, recording its fastest revenue growth since 2011 as demand for server processors benefited from AI infrastructure spending.

Shares initially rose following the announcement before retreating during Friday's trading session.

"AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute," Intel Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan said.

"As we continue to execute, Intel is well-positioned to capture sustainable growth across our CPU franchise."

The mixed reaction across the sector suggests investors remain supportive of AI's long-term potential but are becoming increasingly selective about how much they are willing to pay for that growth while companies continue pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure.