To hold or to hike? Why this week's Fed interest rate decision is difficult to call

The US Federal Reserve heads into its July policy meeting facing one of its most difficult interest rate decisions in recent years, with renewed geopolitical tensions, artificial intelligence-driven investment and fresh tariff measures clouding an inflation outlook that only weeks ago appeared to be easing.

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with investors divided over whether policymakers will keep borrowing costs unchanged or deliver an unexpected rate increase.

While financial markets still expect the Fed to hold rates steady, expectations for a surprise hike have risen sharply over the past week as investors reassess the inflation risks posed by higher energy prices and resilient economic demand.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently assign a 62% probability that the central bank leaves rates unchanged, while 38% expect at least a 25-basis-point increase.

That compares with only a 16% chance of a hike a week ago.

Interest-rate swaps also imply roughly a 40% probability of a quarter-point increase, an unusually high level of uncertainty this close to a Fed decision.

Markets are now pricing an 81% probability of a rate increase at the September meeting.

Inflation outlook becomes more complicated

Only two weeks ago, expectations for a July rate increase had fallen sharply after data showed the US Consumer Price Index declined in June for the first time in six years, helped by lower gasoline prices.

That softer inflation reading appeared to give policymakers room to maintain their wait-and-see approach.

However, the renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East has changed that outlook.

Oil prices have climbed roughly 20% this month despite easing slightly after the United States paused daily strikes against Iran.

Investors remain concerned that Iran-backed Houthi attacks could disrupt Saudi crude exports through the Red Sea, keeping energy prices elevated.

"Things are definitely heating up in the conflict in the Middle East and, for oil, the risk of moving significantly higher from here has increased," Alex Payne, a senior portfolio manager at Vanguard, told Bloomberg.

"The market is adjusting to the risk of inflation being a little bit stickier due to some of these geopolitical issues."

The inflation picture has become even more complicated as artificial intelligence investment continues to fuel demand across the economy, while the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements raise the prospect of higher import costs.

Citadel Securities says Fed may hike rates

Citadel Securities believes policymakers may choose to move immediately rather than wait.

Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, argued that a July increase would demonstrate the Fed's determination to restore price stability while reducing its reliance on extensive forward guidance.

"The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed," Flight wrote.

A rate increase this week, he said, "would emphatically end the forward guidance era" while reinforcing the central bank's independence.

According to Flight, moving now rather than in September could influence businesses' pricing decisions and workers' wage expectations before inflation becomes more deeply embedded, reducing the amount of policy tightening needed later.

Policymakers appear increasingly divided

Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials suggest growing differences over the appropriate policy path.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan has argued that modestly higher rates may be needed because inflation is not yet returning sustainably to the Fed's 2% target.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has similarly emphasised that inflation currently poses a greater challenge than employment.

Both officials vote on this week's decision and could dissent if policymakers again decide to leave rates unchanged.

"It is clear listening to the Fed officials that you have a small group like Logan, Hammack, who probably are ready to get going," Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors LLC, told Bloomberg.

"And then there's a pretty large group that wants to see more improvement and soon."

Minutes from the Fed's previous meeting also revealed that several officials had already discussed scenarios in which inflation could remain elevated because of AI-related demand, geopolitical tensions or tariffs.

Most participants indicated such circumstances would likely require higher interest rates.

Patience still has supporters

Despite the growing hawkish rhetoric, not all policymakers appear ready to tighten policy immediately.

Veronica Clark, economist at Citigroup, told Bloomberg that officials may prefer to keep rates unchanged following June's softer inflation data while monitoring whether higher energy prices translate into broader inflation.

If future reports show only limited pass-through from rising oil prices while unemployment continues to edge higher, the Fed could maintain current borrowing costs for longer or even consider eventual rate cuts, she said.

That cautious approach reflects the difficult balancing act facing Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues.

Inflation remains above target, but recent economic data have shown signs of moderation.

At the same time, policymakers must judge whether temporary geopolitical shocks, robust AI investment and higher tariffs will prove lasting enough to justify another round of monetary tightening.