Monero climbs above $400 as bullish bets build: is $416 next?

Monero XMR extended its gains on Thursday, trading above $400 after buyers defended a key support zone during the previous session.

Improving derivatives data and a constructive technical structure suggest bullish momentum is strengthening. If buyers maintain control, XMR could soon test resistance around $416.45.

Monero derivatives traders turn increasingly bullish

CoinGlass data shows growing optimism among Monero derivatives traders. XMR’s long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.3635 on Thursday, marking its highest level in more than a month. 

A reading above one means long positions outnumber shorts, indicating that more traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to rise.

Although the elevated ratio reflects bullish positioning, it could also increase liquidation risk if XMR suddenly reverses and highly leveraged traders rush to exit their positions.

Monero’s Open Interest has increased steadily since the beginning of August. The total value of outstanding derivatives positions across tracked exchanges reached $182.59 million on Thursday. 

Rising Open Interest alongside an advancing price typically indicates that new positions are entering the market and supporting the prevailing trend.

In the current context, the combined increase in price and Open Interest suggests that traders are opening fresh long positions rather than the rally being driven only by short covering.

Continued growth in Open Interest could support another leg higher. However, an abrupt decline would suggest traders are closing positions and momentum is weakening.

Monero’s funding rate turned positive on August 7 and increased to 0.010% on Thursday.

Positive funding means traders holding long positions are paying those holding shorts. This generally indicates stronger demand for bullish exposure in the perpetual futures market.

The combination of a rising long-to-short ratio, increasing Open Interest and positive funding rates presents a constructive derivatives outlook for XMR.

Still, persistently elevated funding could signal that the market is becoming overcrowded with leveraged long positions, leaving Monero vulnerable to a long squeeze during a sharp pullback.

XMR holds above major moving averages

The XMR/USD daily chart is bullish and efficient as Monero is trading around $405 at the time of writing, remaining above its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The 50-day EMA stands at $356.17, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are positioned at $353.92 and $356.97, respectively. The three averages form a dense support zone between approximately $354 and $357.

XMR also remains above a rising trendline near $354.18 and intermediate horizontal support at $375.20. Holding these levels keeps the short-term technical outlook tilted to the upside.

The Relative Strength Index remains in the mid-60s, signaling strong buying momentum without moving decisively into overbought territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains positive. The MACD line is above zero, while recent histogram expansion suggests that upward momentum is strengthening.

However, the RSI’s proximity to overbought territory means traders should watch for signs of exhaustion as XMR approaches resistance.

The next significant resistance is located at $416.45. A decisive daily close above this level could confirm a continuation of the uptrend and create room for a fresh rally, provided XMR remains above its moving averages and rising trendline.

On the downside, $375.20 represents the first key support. A pullback toward this level could attract buyers seeking to enter the prevailing uptrend.

If sellers push the price below $375.20, attention would shift to the support cluster between $353.92 and $356.97. The rising trendline near $354.18 further reinforces this area.

A daily close below the EMA cluster would indicate weakening bullish control and could expose the deeper horizontal support at $285.11.

For now, Monero’s price structure and derivatives indicators favor buyers, with $416.45 emerging as the next major test.