Nvidia stock faces its next big test: UBS sees one number Wall Street may be missing

Nvidia heads into its August 26 earnings report with Wall Street already expecting another beat, but UBS believes the more important test may come one quarter later.

The chipmaker reported record fiscal first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, including $75.2 billion from Data Center, and guided to roughly $91 billion for the July quarter.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri now expects Nvidia to deliver $94 billion to $95 billion, before guiding to $107 billion to $108 billion for the October quarter.

More strikingly, Arcuri believes actual third-quarter revenue could exceed $110 billion as Blackwell demand remains firm and the first Rubin systems begin contributing.

UBS sees the bigger number beyond Q2

Another quarterly beat would hardly surprise investors after Nvidia repeatedly outpaced expectations during the AI infrastructure boom.

What could matter more is the speed of the next step up.

According to TipRanks, Arcuri expects Blackwell demand to remain steady while Rubin begins contributing ahead of a larger acceleration later in the year.

UBS has raised its calendar 2027 revenue forecast to $681 billion from $649 billion and lifted its GPU shipment estimate to about 10.8 million units from 9.2 million.

A quarter above $110 billion would therefore do more than mark another record.

It would suggest Nvidia can move between major architectures without the revenue pause investors sometimes fear during product transitions.

Rubin could extend the upgrade cycle

Bank of America sees a similar setup.

BofA analyst Vivek Arya expects Nvidia to report $94 billion to $95 billion of second-quarter revenue and guide to $107 billion to $108 billion for the third quarter.

He believes Vera Rubin shipments, new Vera CPU products and continued cloud spending could trigger a “multi-quarter upgrade cycle.”

The economics of the new systems could be equally important.

BofA estimates Vera Rubin NVL racks could cost roughly $7 million to $8.5 million, compared with around $4 million for Blackwell Ultra.

That higher system value could help Nvidia absorb rising memory costs while protecting profitability.

BofA expects long-term gross margins around 73% to 74%, even after accounting for higher memory costs.

That means Rubin does not need explosive unit growth alone to expand Nvidia’s revenue opportunity. Higher-value systems can also push sales higher.

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Financing becomes the next test

The larger question is whether the AI spending machine supporting those forecasts remains credible.

Nvidia recently announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish independent compute-financing platforms designed to mobilise more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said the structure “should arguably alleviate circularity concerns,” according to MarketWatch, because sophisticated outside investors would provide most of the capital.

Bank of America’s Arya called the arrangement a “structurally bullish setup,” arguing that it strengthens Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem while shifting much of the financing burden away from Nvidia.

There is still a catch. Moore described Nvidia’s financial backstops for some neocloud and sovereign-AI customers as “the next big debate for the stock.”

That debate matters because Nvidia’s revenue forecasts ultimately depend on customers continuing to fund enormous infrastructure programmes and earning acceptable returns on them.

The August 26 report is therefore about more than whether Nvidia beats its $91 billion outlook.