Tesla stock starts week in the red: will delivery numbers be a catalyst?

Tesla shares remained under pressure on Friday, as the electric vehicle maker looked to snap a prolonged losing streak.

The stock fell 1.16% to $357.44 in early trading.

Tesla needs to close above $367.96 to end a five-week stretch of declines.

The stock had closed $4.15 above that level on Thursday.

This marks its longest losing streak since January 2025, when shares fell for nine consecutive weeks.

Delivery estimates offer mixed signals

GLJ Research has reiterated its Sell rating on Tesla, maintaining a price target of $24.86, even as its latest delivery estimates for the March quarter came in higher than before.

Analyst Gordon Johnson said the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 368,478 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026.

This is 0.8% above the Wall Street consensus and 5.7% higher than GLJ’s earlier estimate of 348,714 units.

Despite the upward revision, GLJ’s stance remains unchanged.

The firm highlighted that the projected deliveries are still significantly below the peak of 497,099 units recorded in the September quarter of 2025, implying a decline of 25.9% from that level.

GLJ attributed the recent improvement not to a recovery in underlying demand, but to “margin-dilutive subsidy arbitrage in Korea.”

It also pointed out that the comparison base remains relatively weak, as first-quarter 2025 deliveries of 336,681 units were impacted by the Model Y Juniper production transition across multiple factories.

Tesla is scheduled to report its official first-quarter delivery figures on April 2.

Company-compiled estimates currently point to around 366,000 vehicles sold, which would mark a 9% increase compared to the corresponding quarter last year.

That expected growth comes amid several headwinds.

Buyers in the US lost access to the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September, while demand trends in China have been softer at the start of the year.

Even so, analysts indicate that merely meeting or marginally exceeding delivery estimates may not be enough to support the stock, given prevailing market conditions and elevated investor expectations.

Investors await fresh catalysts

The stock’s recent weakness comes despite earlier optimism following stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings.

Since then, investors appear to be waiting for new catalysts.

Key areas of focus include the potential expansion of Tesla’s robo-taxi business and updates on its humanoid robot, Optimus.

Both initiatives were discussed during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

Geopolitical developments have also weighed on sentiment.

Tesla shares have fallen about 8% since hostilities in Iran began on February 28, through Thursday’s close.

SpaceX IPO could influence sentiment

Another factor in focus is a potential initial public offering of SpaceX.

A Reuters report said Elon Musk is considering allocating around 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors, significantly higher than typical levels.

The development could attract strong investor interest and influence sentiment around Tesla, given Musk’s leadership of both companies.

With the rise of online trading platforms, retail participation in high-profile IPOs has increased markedly in recent years.

For now, Tesla’s near-term direction appears tied to delivery data and the emergence of clear growth catalysts, as investors assess whether the company can regain momentum.