Bitcoin rejected at $76K as whale inflows explode, sell-off fears surge
AI Sentiment: 22/100 Bearish
This score is generated through AI-driven analysis of the article's content.
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Sell BTC (BTC-USD perpetuals or spot short) as exchange inflows spike near $76K resistance (11,000 BTC/hr; avg deposit size 2.25 BTC; large-deposit share >40%). Price is failing to break $76,000 and momentum is fading (4H RSI slipping below 63; MACD nearing zero). Expect a retest of $73,150, then $70,505 if $73,150 breaks.
Key Risk: BTC cleanly breaks and holds above $76,932 (4H ILQ) with a daily close, triggering a squeeze toward $79,400 TLQ.
Short BTC via a basket tilt toward Binance-exposed flow risk: sell BTC-USD while simultaneously avoiding spot longs in BTC ETFs/ETNs that track spot (e.g., iShares Bitcoin Trust/GBTC-style exposure) and prefer perps for faster execution. Rationale: deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC to Binance and rising whale concentration historically precede short-term pullbacks when they hit resistance.
Key Risk: Whale deposits to Binance are absorbed without price impact—BTC reclaims $76K and sustains higher highs, invalidating the distribution-to-sell linkage.
- BTC is down by less than 1% and is now trading below $75,000.
- Bitcoin could experience selling pressure amid rising exchange inflows.
- BTC could retest the weekend low of $70,505 if the bears take over.
The cryptocurrency market has turned bearish again as Bitcoin and the other leading cryptocurrencies continue to trade sideways.
Bitcoin briefly retested the $76,000 resistance zone on Thursday but failed to break it, and has now dropped to the $74,700 region.
A Thursday report from CryptoQuant suggests a more cautious outlook, pointing to a sharp rise in exchange inflows that may indicate large holders are preparing to sell.
BTC could encounter selling pressure
CryptoQuant reported that hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached approximately 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late December.
The report added that the spike in exchange inflows has historically coincided with increased selling pressure when they occur near key resistance levels.
This pattern was observed last month when Bitcoin inflows reached 9,000 BTC alongside a high concentration of large deposits.
The event was followed by a short-term price pullback.
The exchange inflow recorded at the moment is higher than what was reported in March, suggesting a potentially stronger wave of distribution as prices test resistance.
In addition to that, the report noted that large investors (whales) have significantly influenced the movements.
The average Bitcoin deposit to exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, its highest daily level since July 2024.
CryptoQuant noted that this increase was driven in part by sizable transfers to Binance, including individual deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC.
The increase in average deposit size usually suggests activity from large holders, while retail-driven inflows tend to reduce the average.
A similar scenario was recorded in January, when elevated deposit sizes preceded a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.
CryptoQuant added that large deposits accounted for less than 10% of total exchange inflows just days ago, but have since risen to more than 40%.
“This sharp acceleration in large-deposit concentration confirms that institutional and large-holder distribution is driving the exchange inflow spike,” the report added.
However, in an email to Invezz, Sergei Gorev, Head of Risk at YouHodler, believes that many long-term holders will continue to hold their assets.
Gorev added that:
The current price of BTC (approximately 74,000-75,000) is the average entry price for holders of the American BTC-ETF. And those investors who have endured the drawdown of the BTC price below 60,000 are likely to continue to hold their coins. Without putting additional pressure on quotes. This may additionally support local prices in the short term.
Technical forecast: BTC’s price could remain choppy
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains choppy and could stay this way until the $76,000 resistance level is taken out or the bears regain control.
Momentum indicators show a fading bullish narrative. The RSI of 59 has dropped below the 63 recorded on Thursday, indicating a fading bullish momentum.
The MACD lines are also approaching the zero line, adding further confluence to the growing selling pressure.
If the buyers push BTC’s price above the $76,000 resistance level, it could extend its rally towards the 4-hour Inducement Liquidity (ILQ) at $76,932.
A daily close above this level would expose the Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) at $79,400.
However, if the $76,000 resistance level holds, BTC could likely retest the Thursday low of $73,150.
A close below this level would see Bitcoin drop towards the Sunday support level of $70,505.
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