Bitcoin struggles near $77K as selling pressure caps breakout

Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $77,000 as selling pressure and weak participation continue to cap its breakout attempts.

According to TRDR data, more than $130 million in sell orders sit between $76,700 and $79,300, forming a dense resistance band that has repeatedly stalled upward moves.

Although Bitcoin briefly reached $77,400, the presence of clustered asks and steady profit-taking has limited follow-through toward the $80,000 level.

Analysing the situation, crypto analyst Darkfost reported that roughly 150,000 BTC has moved to exchanges since April 15, with three sessions alone recording transfers of 65,000 BTC, 54,600 BTC, and 39,000 BTC from short-term holder wallets.

Those wallets, holding BTC for less than 155 days, have been increasingly active as the price approached local highs, contributing to repeated failures near $77,000.

Order book positioning continues to highlight the imbalance.

TRDR data shows a slightly negative long-short delta of -$1.47 million, alongside a negative futures funding rate, indicating that bearish positioning still outweighs bullish leverage even as bulls retain a marginal short-term edge.

Liquidity bands and cost bases tighten the range

The one-to-three-month holder cohort holds an average cost basis of $75,620, while the weighted average entry for US spot Bitcoin ETFs stands near $76,700, placing price just below a key institutional accumulation zone.

The adjusted realised price at $72,300 remains below spot levels, keeping a large portion of supply in profit and reinforcing the $75,000 area as a support pivot.

Derivatives data shows a tight range, with about $2.69 billion in long liquidations near $74,000 and roughly $4.48 billion in short liquidations above $80,000, leaving both sides exposed within this band.

A recent swing between $77,873 and $74,868 wiped out $494 million in positions, including $347 million in longs, showing how quickly leverage gets cleared without sustained momentum.

Within that structure, short liquidity is concentrated near $76,800.

TRDR data shows negative delta exposure between -$66.5 million and -$189 million in that zone, increasing the risk of forced short liquidations if price moves higher into those levels.

Weak ETF demand and macro pressure

Trading volumes have also fallen to levels last seen in September 2023, with Binance recording a monthly drop of about $25 billion, while Gate.io and OKX saw declines of $13 billion and $6 billion, respectively.

Lower participation has reduced the market’s ability to absorb selling pressure during rallies.

At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $490 million in net outflows over three consecutive sessions earlier in the week, reversing part of the prior two-week inflow trend, although total net inflows since March still stand at $3.3 billion.

Macro conditions have also added pressure on sentiment.

Since the war in Iran began in late February, oil has become one of the main pressure points for risk assets.

Reuters reported that Brent crude briefly climbed above $126 as concern grew that the US-Iran conflict could lead to a longer disruption in Middle East energy supply.

The move coincided with the US 5-year Treasury yield rising to 4.02% from 3.51% 2 months earlier, adding pressure on Bitcoin as traders priced in stronger inflation risks and weaker demand for risk assets.

Rising oil prices near $126 and US 5-year Treasury yields climbing to 4.02% have pushed investors toward defensive positioning, while US GDP growth came in at 2%, below the 2.3% expectation reported by the US Commerce Department, contributing to cautious risk appetite.

Is Bitcoin breakout at risk?

Due to the lack of strong underlying demand, upside rallies have been short-lived as TRDR data shows that most intraday price moves are being driven by liquidations rather than sustained buying.

Such rallies tend to be vulnerable to reversals once liquidations subside.

Open interest data reinforces that pattern, with positions declining from above 300,000 BTC to around 292,000 BTC on a seven-day average, as roughly 8,000 to 9,000 BTC in leverage has been removed over the past 10 days.

A move toward $80,000 would likely require a clear rise in both spot volumes and leveraged positioning.

Until that demand returns, the combination of profit-taking near $77,000 and limited liquidity absorption could continue to keep Bitcoin confined within its current range.