Near Protocol price forecast: Can NEAR price break past $2.25

NEAR, the native token of Near Protocol, is trading at $2.17 at the time of writing, up 2.88% in the past 24 hours, even as Bitcoin remains under pressure.

The question is whether this is the start of a stronger recovery or just another trap before a deeper drop?

The $2.25 level has already rejected bulls once

NEAR price had a sharp drop over the past seven days, falling 19.5% and touching a low of $1.84 within the weekly range.

From that low, the price bounced back toward $2.25 on June 8, although bulls couldn't hold it.

Notably, the rejection at $2.25 locked in a lower high on the chart, which is typically a bearish signal in technical analysis.

The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 50.69, which means momentum is neither overbought nor oversold. It is in neutral territory, which does not favour bulls or bears on its own; it simply means the market has not made up its mind yet.

According to technical analysis shared on CoinMarketCap by GainMuse, NEAR’s price is currently biased to the downside, with $1.75 identified as the key support level where the main trendline sits.

GainMuse’s analysis notes that below $1.70, the broader macro structure begins to break down, which would be a more serious problem than a short-term correction.

For bulls to change the picture, NEAR needs a clean hold at $1.75 and a confirmed push back above $2.25. Until that happens, sellers control the range.

There is also a notable cluster of liquidations sitting between $2.13 and $2.20, which adds friction for buyers trying to push through.

Each attempt to break that zone risks triggering stop orders from both sides, making it a messy area to trade through.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, took profits on his NEAR holdings recently, which added to the selling pressure seen over the past week.

When a high-profile investor of his stature publicly exits a position, it tends to shake confidence among smaller holders.

SpaceX IPO and record on-chain volume could change the current trend

Despite the bearish technical setup, upcoming developments could provide support for the token.

Investors are also watching the anticipated SpaceX IPO, which is expected to price on June 11 and begin trading on June 12.

SpaceX's recent acquisition of Elon Musk's xAI lab has framed the offering as a major AI trade, and that narrative has been driving capital into AI-linked cryptocurrencies.

NEAR markets itself as a Layer-1 blockchain built specifically for AI development, which makes it one of the more direct proxies for this theme in the crypto market.

The current price rebound is partly the result of capital rotating out of Bitcoin and into AI-themed altcoins.

What makes the rally slightly more credible than a pure narrative trade is what is happening on-chain.

NEAR's Intents framework, which handles cross-chain swaps, processed a record $223.9 million in daily swap volume recently.

The network also surpassed 550,000 unique users over the past 30 days. That level of activity suggests actual usage is growing, not just speculation.

The Unstoppable Wallet integration with NEAR Intents, announced alongside these figures, adds another distribution channel for cross-chain swaps, which should support continued volume if usage trends hold.

The 24-hour trading volume for NEAR stands at approximately $521 million, roughly 18.7% of its total market value changing hands in a single day, which signals elevated activity and volatility.

However, high volume can cut both ways; it can accelerate a breakout or speed up a breakdown.

Key levels to watch into the SpaceX IPO

The immediate resistance that matters is $2.20. A daily close above that level would open the path toward the next Fibonacci target at $2.29.

If that falls too, $2.25 becomes support rather than resistance, and that would represent a genuine shift in structure.

On the downside, $2.00 is the psychological support level to monitor first.

A break below $2.00 would likely bring $1.85 into focus, and from there, the critical trendline at $1.75.

Losing $1.75 support would put NEAR in a position where the broader bearish structure could accelerate, potentially opening the door to a deeper decline below $1.70.