Will VVV resume its rally amid easing demand? Check forecast

Venice VVV is trading near $16 on Tuesday, struggling to extend a remarkable six-month rally that saw the privacy-focused AI token gain roughly 1,500%.

The coin is down 10% in the last 24 hours and could extend its decline if the market conditions fail to improve. 

Recent on-chain metrics indicate that buying momentum is fading, with declining staking activity, reduced token burns, weakening platform revenue, and deteriorating derivatives sentiment all pointing to a potential near-term correction.

While the project's long-term adoption story remains intact, several key indicators suggest demand is cooling after months of aggressive appreciation.

Unstaking activity signals rising supply pressure

One of the clearest warning signs comes from Venice's staking data.

According to VeniceStats, approximately 1.02 million VVV tokens—representing 3.2% of all staked supply—are currently in a seven-day unstaking cool-down period.

The increase suggests a growing number of investors are preparing to unlock tokens, potentially increasing circulating supply and creating additional selling pressure if holders decide to take profits following the token's explosive rally.

Venice's tokenomics rely partly on a buy-and-burn mechanism funded through platform revenues and subscription purchases.

However, as VVV surged from roughly $1 to $16, each dollar spent now burns significantly fewer tokens than before.

As a result, weekly burn activity has fallen sharply. Data shows that weekly burns declined to 2,418 VVV last week, while weekly burns peaked at 20,251 VVV in early December.

The sustained decline reduces the token's deflationary impact and gradually increases supply pressure over time.

Platform revenue is also showing signs of moderation. Daily revenue generated from new Venice AI subscriptions dropped to approximately $24,580 on Monday, down from a recent peak of $40,820 on June 1.

The decline appears to be driven primarily by lower demand for higher-priced Pro Plus and Max subscription tiers.

Despite this slowdown, lower-tier subscription activity remains relatively stable, suggesting user adoption continues even as premium spending softens.

Finally, derivatives market data has also turned bearish. Sentiment in the derivatives market has deteriorated noticeably.

According to CoinGlass data, VVV futures open interest fell approximately 10% over the past 24 hours to $81.93 million.

The decline indicates traders are closing leveraged positions rather than adding fresh exposure, often a sign of weakening conviction.

Further highlighting the shift in sentiment, the open-interest-weighted funding rate slipped to -0.0084%.

A negative funding rate means short sellers are increasingly willing to pay a premium to maintain bearish positions, reflecting growing expectations of additional downside pressure.

VVV price analysis: Will VVV decline below $15?

The VVV/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient despite the recent weakness. 

Venice is trading above the 50-day EMA at $14.46, the 100-day EMA at $11.46, and the 200-day EMA at $8.30.

However, momentum indicators suggest the rally is losing strength.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to deteriorate, with both the MACD and signal lines trending lower toward the zero line.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 47, slightly below the midpoint.

This reading does not indicate aggressive selling pressure but points to a consolidation phase as buyers and sellers battle for control.

If the selling pressure persists, the sellers would likely push VVV’s price towards the first major support level at $14.46. 

A daily close below this level would likely confirm a bearish break of the multi-month uptrend structure.

However, if the buyers regain control, they could overcome the first major resistance at $21.64 (all-time high). 

A decisive breakout above that level would place Venice back into price discovery mode and potentially reignite bullish momentum.