SpaceX stock jumps premarket as Nasdaq-100 inclusion bets grip Wall Street

SpaceX stock climbed in premarket trading on Monday after the Elon Musk-led company delivered a strong debut on the Nasdaq, with investors betting that upcoming index inclusions could provide another catalyst for gains.

The stock rose about 6.7% before the opening bell, exceeding the $170 mark after ending its first trading session at $160.95 per share.

SpaceX had priced its initial public offering at $135 a share, meaning the stock surged roughly 19% on its debut and pushed the company's market capitalization above the $2 trillion (approx. AED 7.3 trillion) mark.

The strong start came as Musk doubled down on the company's long-term ambitions.

On Sunday, the billionaire entrepreneur said SpaceX could generate as much as $1 trillion (approx. AED 3.7 trillion) in annual revenue by 2030, a target that far exceeds Wall Street's existing projections.

Goldman Sachs has estimated SpaceX's revenue could exceed $470 billion (approx. AED 1.7 trillion) by 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected revenue of nearly $330 billion (approx. AED 1.2 trillion), according to a Wall Street Journal report published earlier this month.

SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7 billion (approx. AED 68.7 billion) in 2025.

Retail investors drive strong debut

Retail investors played a major role in the stock's first trading session.

According to data from Vanda Research, individual investors purchased $117.6 million (approx. AED 432 million) worth of SpaceX shares on Friday, making it the most-bought stock of the session.

The figure surpassed the previous record for an IPO debut set by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase in April 2021.

Retail investors were allocated roughly 20% of the IPO, an unusually large share compared with many high-profile public offerings.

The strong buying interest underscored the appeal of SpaceX among individual investors, many of whom have waited years for an opportunity to gain direct exposure to Musk's rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence businesses.

Index inclusion could provide another boost

Market participants are now turning their attention to SpaceX's expected inclusion in major stock indexes, a development that could trigger billions of dollars in additional buying.

The company is expected to join the Nasdaq-100 within days, making it a significant holding for exchange-traded funds and passive investment vehicles that track the benchmark.

Analysts estimate that the inclusion could generate between $7 billion (approx. AED 25.7 billion) and $10 billion (approx. AED 36.7 billion) of passive inflows.

Nasdaq will adjust the stock's weighting based on its public float, meaning the index will treat SpaceX more like a company valued at roughly $225 billion (approx. AED 826.5 billion) rather than its full market capitalization of more than $2 trillion (approx. AED 7.3 trillion).

Additional demand may come later this month when index providers FTSE Russell and MSCI add the stock to their benchmarks on June 26 and June 29, respectively.

Volatility risks remain

Despite the enthusiasm, analysts and portfolio managers cautioned that investors should expect significant volatility during the stock's early months as a public company.

SpaceX has a relatively small public float compared with its overall valuation, a factor that can amplify price swings when trading volumes surge.

SpaceX stock gained in tandem with broader market sentiment after reports of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending a conflict that has lasted more than three months and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions lifted risk appetite across markets.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 1.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained about 1% and Nasdaq futures advanced more than 2%.

"If the overnight news of a deal between the US and Iran proves to be credible and lasting, this should be taken as a positive, whereas setbacks will likely be taken as less of a negative by risk assets," said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research.

With strong retail demand, potential index-driven inflows and Musk's ambitious growth projections, SpaceX begins its life as a public company under intense investor scrutiny, even as questions remain over whether its lofty valuation can be sustained.