Why is Bitcoin price stuck below $65,000?

Bitcoin has remained below $65,000 after a weekend rebound briefly lifted the cryptocurrency above $64,500.

According to market data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin climbed to a local high of $64,522 on Sunday before retreating toward $64,000, leaving the asset down roughly 2.4% over the past seven days and well below its recent highs near $67,000.

Several factors have combined to keep Bitcoin under pressure, ranging from geopolitical uncertainty and weakening institutional demand to concerns surrounding one of the market's largest corporate buyers.

Volatility returned after traders reacted to developments in the Middle East.

Optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland initially supported risk assets and helped trigger a short squeeze that pushed Bitcoin higher. 

Sentiment quickly changed after renewed concerns emerged around trade disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting traders to lock in gains.

Attention has also turned to Strategy's STRC preferred stock.

Market commentators have pointed to the instrument's decline below its $100 par value as a potential obstacle for the company's Bitcoin acquisition mechanism. 

The situation gained further scrutiny after reports that Strategy sold a small amount of Bitcoin to help fund preferred dividend payments, a move that some observers viewed as a setback for institutional confidence.

Another challenge comes from a significant reduction in demand among large investors.

According to CryptoQuant-associated analyst Darkfost, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained largely negative throughout 2026.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant.

The indicator compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance and is commonly used to gauge US institutional demand. 

Persistent negative readings suggest professional investors have not yet returned to the market in force.

Data from SoSoValue paints a similar picture.

US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded $4.7 billion (approx. AED 17.2 billion) in net outflows since May, indicating continued caution among ETF investors and institutions.

Darkfost added that institutional participants typically prioritise confirmation and performance over attempting to buy potential bottoms, arguing that current market conditions have not yet provided that confirmation.

Outside of crypto, several well-known market commentators have warned about risks facing traditional financial markets.

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has described the current artificial intelligence boom as a speculative bubble, while investor Michael Burry has compared recent market behavior to the final stages of the Dot-com era. 

Meanwhile, Economist Gary Shilling has warned that a US recession is "almost inevitable" by year-end and has projected a potential 20% to 30% decline in stocks.

Technical analyst Jesse Olson has taken the bearish scenario further. In a chart shared on Sunday, Olson suggested Bitcoin could fall toward $23,980 if equities were to suffer a crash exceeding 50%.

The projection is based on a long-term volume-weighted support line extending from the 2022 bear market low.

Bitcoin price analysis

Recent chart data shows Bitcoin recovering from a sharp decline that pushed the asset into the low $60,000 region earlier this month. 

While buyers have managed to stabilise price action around $64,000, the recovery has yet to overcome a major resistance zone.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

Volume Profile data on the daily chart identifies the $67,000 to $68,000 region as the largest concentration of recent trading activity. 

Because a substantial amount of volume previously changed hands there, traders often view the area as a significant barrier that must be reclaimed before momentum can improve.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has also recovered from deeply negative levels reached during the June selloff. 

However, the indicator remains slightly below zero, suggesting capital inflows have improved but have not yet turned decisively positive.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows another reason traders are watching the mid-$65,000 area closely.

Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: TradingView.

The largest concentration of short liquidations currently sits between roughly $64,800 and $65,200, creating a potential liquidity target if buyers continue pushing higher.

Several market participants have highlighted that possibility.

Trader Lennaert Snyder described Bitcoin's rally during heightened geopolitical tensions as unusual but said a move toward $66,000 remained possible. 

Killa, another market analyst, warned that recent trading history has seen Mondays frequently coincide with local highs before prices moved lower.

Order-book activity has added another layer of caution.

Market commentator Exitpump highlighted that Binance spot traders had continued selling into the latest rally, and argued that derivatives activity rather than spot demand was responsible for much of the recent upside.

BTC/USD price chart. Source: Exitpump on X.

Based on the current data, Bitcoin is attempting to recover from June's decline, but several obstacles remain. 

Institutional demand has yet to show convincing improvement, macroeconomic risks continue to weigh on sentiment, and technical resistance between $65,000 and $68,000 remains firmly in place.

Unless buyers can reclaim that zone, Bitcoin is expected to remain vulnerable to further volatility in the weeks ahead.