Can Bitcoin maintain momentum above $63K?

Bitcoin’s latest rally pushed it to a two-week high above $63,000 over the weekend before cooling off.

According to market data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin briefly touched nearly $63,900 during the US holiday weekend before retreating toward $63,200 on Monday, holding on to most of its weekly gains after rising more than 5% over the past seven days.

The weekend advance was driven by a combination of weaker-than-expected US economic data, renewed demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a wave of short liquidations that accelerated the move higher.

Fresh optimism emerged after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below forecasts of 110,000. 

The weaker labour report prompted traders to dial back expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, easing pressure on Treasury yields while reducing the opportunity cost of holding assets such as Bitcoin.

Supporting that view, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed markets assigning nearly an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while QCP Capital said softer inflation data would still be needed before markets could fully price in a more accommodative policy outlook.

The macro backdrop coincided with a heavily short-positioned derivatives market after Bitcoin spent much of June trading near the $58,000-$60,000 range. 

Once the price reclaimed the psychologically important $62,000 level, short sellers were forced to close positions, triggering a rapid squeeze.

Market commentator Daan Crypto Trades described the move as a classic short squeeze, noting that prices climbed into a heavily shorted zone before forced covering intensified the rally. 

CoinGlass data showed around $167 million (approx. AED 613.4 million) worth of crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, while broader weekend liquidations exceeded $450 million (approx. AED 1.7 billion), providing additional buying pressure during relatively thin holiday trading conditions.

At the same time, institutional flows also improved.

According to QCP Capital, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $224 million (approx. AED 822.8 million) of net inflows on Thursday, ending a six-session streak of outflows after roughly $2.4 billion (approx. AED 8.8 billion) had previously left the products.

Despite the recovery, Bitcoin has struggled to extend gains beyond the weekend highs as traders reassess whether buying interest is strong enough to replace the momentum created by forced short covering.

Despite the weekend's positive inflow bump, institutional sentiment remains highly cautious. 

Wall Street firms have recently downgraded their 12-month Bitcoin price targets with Citigroup lowering its targets to $82,000 from $112,000 

The banking group’s analysts slashed its net ETF inflow forecasts to zero and warned of a structural breakdown in spot demand highlighting that June saw a record $4.5 billion (approx. AED 16.5 billion) pulled from the funds.

Liquidity is actively being sucked away from the broader digital asset space and rotating into high-performing, artificial intelligence-related tech equities. 

Without deep spot market liquidity staying in crypto, Bitcoin is highly vulnerable to quick, grinding reversals. 

Meanwhile, regulatory friction is also adding to the overall weakness.

Following the July 1 Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) deadline in Europe, major global exchanges have begun halting certain unapproved services, spot pairs, and Earn products for EU residents, introducing localized liquidations.

Bitcoin price analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has regained important short-term support but still faces several resistance levels before confirming a stronger trend reversal.

The daily chart shows Bitcoin recovering from lows near $57,700 to reclaim the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $62,400, while the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back to roughly 50, indicating momentum has improved from oversold conditions without entering overbought territory.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

Bitcoin also remains below the 50-day EMA near $65,700, the 100-day EMA around $69,400, and the 200-day EMA near $75,500, leaving the broader daily trend tilted to the downside until those levels are reclaimed.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The accompanying Fibonacci retracement levels identify the 0.618 retracement around $63,600 as the first hurdle. 

A sustained move above that region could open the way toward the 0.786 level near $65,200, followed by the previous swing high around $67,300. 

Beyond that, the next major resistance zone sits between $69,000 and $75,000, where both the longer-term moving averages and previous trading activity converge.

Volume Profile analysis also points to significant historical trading activity in the mid-$60,000 region, suggesting Bitcoin could encounter additional selling pressure if buyers fail to absorb supply there. 

Failure to hold above the current support zone around $62,600-$63,000 could instead expose the market to another test of $60,000, with the recent lows near $57,700-$58,000 remaining the next major downside support.

Derivatives positioning currently offers little evidence of excessive leverage building behind the latest recovery. 

As of press time, Bitcoin’s open interest stood at approximately $21 billion (approx. AED 77.1 billion), up just 0.18% over the past 24 hours, while perpetual contracts accounted for about $20 billion (approx. AED 73.5 billion) of that total. 

The relatively small increase suggests fresh leveraged bets have remained limited following the weekend rally.

Bitcoin's long-to-short ratio has also held close to 1.03 across intraday timeframes, with long positions representing roughly 50.6% of open positions and shorts accounting for about 49.3%. 

The near-even split indicates traders have yet to establish a strong directional consensus after the recent rebound.

Although price action has stabilised above the 200-week simple moving average near $62,600, some traders remain cautious about the days ahead.

According to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, the next key test is establishing whether Bitcoin can hold the 200-week moving average as support or whether the recent advance was primarily a liquidity-driven move before another decline.

With markets reopening after the US holiday weekend, traders will be watching whether the latest recovery can extend higher or if Monday brings another round of selling pressure.