SpaceX stock enters Nasdaq-100 today: can the IPO rally survive?

SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX is all set to enter the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, less than a month after its June 12 market debut, giving one of 2026’s biggest IPO trades a powerful new technical catalyst.

Nasdaq confirmed the fast-track inclusion late last month, opening the door for index-tracking funds to buy the stock.

J.P. Morgan estimates the move could draw about $4.3 billion (approx. AED 15.8 billion) in passive inflows.

The question for investors is whether that mechanical demand can extend the rally, or whether the good news is already priced in.

Index buying gives SpaceX stock a fresh catalyst

The Nasdaq-100 entry matters because it creates forced demand.

Funds that track the benchmark, including products such as Invesco QQQ and QQQM, do not buy SpaceX because they have suddenly become more bullish on rockets, Starlink or AI infrastructure.

They buy because their rules require them to mirror the index.

That makes Tuesday’s inclusion a clean near-term trading event. Passive flows can be powerful, especially when a stock has a limited public float and heavy retail interest.

SpaceX’s addition follows recent rule changes that allow very large IPOs to enter major benchmarks faster than before, reflecting the market’s rush to make room for new mega-cap technology names.

For traders, the Nasdaq-100 entry is less about SpaceX’s rockets and more about mechanical demand.

The question is whether that demand is still strong enough to lift a stock that has already traded like a market event in itself.

SpaceX has been volatile since listing.

The stock surged as much as 67% after its debut before sliding sharply in the following days, a move analysts tied more to IPO dynamics and positioning than to a major shift in fundamentals.

Bulls say the story is bigger than rockets

The bullish case is that SpaceX is being misread as a rocket company when Wall Street should be valuing it as a space, broadband and AI infrastructure platform.

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.

The firm argues that SpaceX’s next leg of growth could come from a vertically integrated terrestrial-and-orbital compute stack, not only launch services and Starlink broadband.

That is a much bigger story than index inclusion alone. If investors accept the AI infrastructure thesis, SpaceX could command a valuation closer to fast-growing technology platforms than traditional aerospace peers.

Wedbush is also constructive, though with a more measured target as the firm initiated SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, citing Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure and space-based connectivity as multiple growth drivers.

That gives bulls a simple argument: Nasdaq-100 buying may help the stock today, but the longer-term case rests on whether SpaceX can become a platform company across launch, broadband and AI-linked infrastructure.

Valuation risks could decide whether the rally survives

The bear case is just as clear. SpaceX may be an exceptional company, but the stock already carries exceptional expectations.

Morningstar’s Michael Field told Reuters that the fast-track index entry shows strong demand for SpaceX shares, but he also said Morningstar views the stock as overvalued.

That warning matters because index buying can support a stock temporarily, but it does not settle the valuation debate.

Options markets are also signalling caution.

Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson saw traders assigning about a 40% probability that SpaceX would trade below $130 by mid-September.

Short interest adds another layer of volatility as it has climbed to 196 million shares, or about 31% of SpaceX’s tradable float.

Short sellers were sitting on about $760 million (approx. AED 2.8 billion) in mark-to-market losses since the IPO.

Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg called the rise in short bets “extraordinary” for a stock public for less than a month, and said continued strength could provide “potential fuel” for a squeeze.