Can Dogecoin hold $0.07 as Iran shock keeps crypto traders nervous?

Dogecoin extended its recent losses on Thursday, drifting toward the $0.07 level as investors reacted to renewed geopolitical tensions and a broader decline across the cryptocurrency market.

The meme coin continues to mirror weakness in major digital assets as traders reduce exposure to riskier investments amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

US-Iran conflict weighs on risk assets

Market sentiment deteriorated after tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.

Iran launched attacks targeting US military bases in the Middle East following American strikes on multiple locations inside Iran.

The US also reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports, stating the move was in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The renewed exchange of hostilities has increased concerns about a wider regional conflict, prompting investors to move away from higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The worsening geopolitical environment has further weakened sentiment across the digital asset market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 26, placing the market firmly within the Extreme Fear zone.

Historically, readings at these levels indicate investors are highly risk-averse, often leading to reduced buying activity and increased market volatility.

Unless confidence returns, cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin could continue facing downward pressure.

Despite the recent price weakness, derivatives data suggest some investors remain optimistic about Dogecoin's longer-term outlook.

According to CoinGlass, Dogecoin perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) increased to $1 billion (approx. AED 3.8 billion), up from the $995 million (approx. AED 3.7 billion) recorded on Wednesday. 

The increase indicates traders continue opening or maintaining futures positions despite the ongoing correction, reflecting cautious long-term confidence even as short-term market conditions remain challenging.

Dogecoin price outlook: Bears retain control

The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient despite the higher timeframe showing a clear downtrend. 

DOGE continues to trade below its 50-day EMA ($0.08), 100-day EMA ($0.09), and the 200-day EMA ($0.11)

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure continues to dominate, although bearish momentum has eased slightly.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 36, recovering modestly from oversold conditions but still reflecting weak buying interest.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive, indicating a tentative recovery attempt.

However, the signal remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.

Dogecoin faces several important technical levels that traders are watching closely.

For buyers to regain momentum, DOGE must overcome the first major resistance level at $0.08. A daily candle close above this would allow it to reclaim the $0.09 level and the 200-day EMA at $0.11. 

Together, these levels form a significant resistance zone that must be reclaimed before the broader outlook can turn bullish.

If selling pressure continues, the next major support lies near $0.05.

A decline toward this area would represent the next key test for buyers attempting to defend Dogecoin's longer-term market structure.

Until bullish momentum strengthens, DOGE is likely to remain vulnerable to further downside amid persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.