PEPE price coils below its 50-day EMA as breakout pressure intensifies

Pepe PEPE is trading higher on Monday, extending the recovery that has been building over the past three weeks as both institutional-sized investors and retail traders showed renewed interest in the meme coin.

On-chain data indicates that whale wallets have steadily increased their exposure to PEPE, while the amount of tokens held on cryptocurrency exchanges has continued to decline—a combination that often signals accumulation rather than selling pressure.

Meanwhile, derivatives activity has accelerated, reinforcing expectations that bullish momentum could continue if key resistance levels are broken.

Whale accumulation strengthens bullish outlook

Large investors, commonly known as whales, appear to be increasing their PEPE holdings following the token's recent decline.

According to Santiment data, wallets holding 10 million to 1 billion PEPE now control 0.89% of the total supply, up from 0.85% in late February.

Meanwhile, those holding 1 billion to 10 billion PEPE have increased their share from 2.51% to 2.57%.

The gradual increase suggests that larger investors have been accumulating during the market pullback rather than exiting their positions.

At the same time, approximately 25% of PEPE's circulating supply is now back in profit, reflecting improving market conditions following the recent recovery.

Another encouraging signal comes from declining exchange reserves. Santiment data shows the proportion of PEPE held on centralized exchanges has fallen to 18.64%, down from 22.35% over the same period.

Lower exchange balances generally indicate investors are transferring tokens into private wallets, reducing immediate selling pressure and supporting a more constructive long-term outlook.

Combined with rising whale ownership, the trend suggests accumulation remains stronger than distribution.

Retail participation is also increasing.

CoinGlass data shows PEPE futures Open Interest rose 3% over the past 24 hours to approximately $152.92 million, while futures trading volume nearly doubled, jumping 106% to $384.64 million.

The increase in both Open Interest and trading volume indicates fresh capital is entering the derivatives market rather than simply rotating existing positions.

Funding rates also remain positive at 0.0029%, meaning traders holding long positions are paying a premium to maintain their exposure—typically a sign of bullish market sentiment.

However, elevated leverage also introduces greater downside risk. If PEPE experiences a sharp pullback, highly leveraged long positions could be liquidated, amplifying short-term volatility.

PEPE price prediction: Can bulls reclaim the 50-day EMA?

The PEPE/USD 4-hour chart shows that PEPE is testing an important resistance level after consolidating beneath it for much of last week.

The meme coin is attempting to reclaim its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.000002850, a level that could determine whether the recovery gathers further momentum.

Technical indicators continue to favor buyers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the MACD continues to rise toward the zero line while remaining above its signal line, indicating improving upward momentum.

These signals suggest buyers are gradually regaining control, although confirmation will require a sustained breakout above resistance.

If PEPE successfully closes above the 50-day EMA, the next upside target is the $0.000003206 resistance, with another supply zone at $0.000003893 (200-day). EMA.

A move above these levels would strengthen the medium-term bullish outlook and could attract additional buying interest.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the $0.000002659 demand zone. If this support fails, PEPE could retreat toward the previous swing low around $0.000002249.

Holding above the Fibonacci support remains critical for preserving the current recovery trend.