HYPE falls below $60: are ETF outflows signalling more pain ahead?

Hyperliquid HYPE remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading below the $60 mark as buyers struggled to push the token above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.70. 

The token continues to face headwinds from declining institutional interest and weakening retail participation, while technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains intact.

Although trading activity has picked up, investors appear cautious as ETF outflows, lower futures positioning, and increased long liquidations point to fading confidence in the near-term outlook.

Institutional investors pull back from HYPE

Institutional appetite for Hyperliquid has weakened noticeably over the past two weeks.

According to CoinGlass’s ETF page, HYPE-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $700,000 in net outflows on Tuesday, following $7.3 million (approx. AED 26.7 million) in withdrawals last week.

The latest figures mark a clear reversal after nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, suggesting large investors are becoming more cautious and reducing buying pressure on the token.

Adding to concerns, blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that Multicoin Capital may be trimming its HYPE exposure. 

On-chain data indicates that a wallet believed to be associated with the investment firm transferred 395,570 HYPE to Coinbase Prime while also requesting the unstaking of 211,486 HYPE.

The fund accumulated approximately 606,091 HYPE around five months ago at an average purchase price near $30, making any reduction in holdings noteworthy for market participants.

Retail sentiment has also weakened as derivatives data points to a slowdown in speculative activity.

Hyperliquid's futures Open Interest (OI) declined 2.4% over the past 24 hours to $2.5 billion (approx. AED 9.3 billion), reflecting a modest reduction in outstanding leveraged positions as the spot price slipped lower.

At the same time, bullish traders absorbed the majority of liquidations.

Long liquidations reached $2.8 million (approx. AED 10.4 million), significantly exceeding $133,430 in short liquidations, indicating that buyers have borne the brunt of recent price weakness.

However, not all metrics are negative. Trading volume climbed 41% to approximately $2.4 billion (approx. AED 9 billion), suggesting market participation remains healthy despite the decline in price.

Meanwhile, the funding rate edged higher to 0.0009% from -0.0013% a day earlier.

While the move signals a slight improvement in sentiment, the near-zero reading continues to reflect indecision among futures traders rather than a decisive bullish shift.

HYPE price prediction: Can Hyperliquid reclaim $60 soon?

From a technical perspective, Hyperliquid remains at a critical support area. The token is trading below the 50-day EMA at $62.70, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum.

However, it continues to hold comfortably above the 200-day EMA at $49.95, preserving its broader long-term uptrend.

The sellers have pushed HYPE below the critical $60.41 support level, with the next demand zone around $54.19. 

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 48, remaining below the neutral 50 level and indicating weakening buying pressure. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below its signal line in negative territory, suggesting any recovery attempts could face resistance.

For bullish momentum to return, HYPE must first reclaim the 50-day EMA at $62.70. 

A successful breakout above this level would shift attention to the next demand zone at $66.22, followed by a descending resistance trendline around $69.87.

Clearing these barriers would improve the technical outlook and increase the likelihood of a retest of Hyperliquid's all-time high at $76.93.

Until then, weakening ETF demand, cautious retail positioning, and bearish momentum indicators suggest the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with the $54 support level likely to determine HYPE's next major move.