Here’s why Oracle stock may still hit $100 despite the Pentagon contract

Oracle stock rose by 2% in the premarket session as the company reached a deal with the US government in a major win for Larry Ellison, a close friend of Donald Trump. Still, it remains near its lowest level since April 2025. It has fallen by 65% from its all-time high.

Oracle reaches a $7 billion contract

Oracle, a large database, software, and cloud computing company, has reached a big $7 billion deal with the Pentagon. This deal will see the company provide its software in ten years.

Oracle will provide it with its software in on-premises data centers for the military, intelligence community, and the Coast Guard. The government believes that the deal will help it save over $444 million.

Ellison has cultivated a relationship with President Trump. He contributed $45 million in his campaign and took part in a large data center project in collaboration with OpenAI and Softbank. 

Trump also brokered a deal that allowed the company to own TikTok’s US business. It owns a 15% stake in the company, while Silver Lake, MGX, and ByteDance own 15%, 15%, and 19.9%, respectively.

Oracle faces major risks ahead

Still, despite the deal, Oracle faces major challenges even as its revenue backlog jumped to over $638 billion. Its revenue jumped by 21% to $19.2 billion, while the earnings-per-share soared by 21% to $1.45. The net revenue jumped to over $4.5 billion.

Analysts expect the business to continue growing, with the average estimate for the last quarter being $19.12 billion. If this is correct, it will represent a 28% increase from the same period last year. Its annual revenue is expected to be $90 billion and $130 billion next year.

Still, the biggest challenge the company faces is its balance sheet as its debt jumps. The company’s short-term debt jumped to over $7.2 billion, while its long-term debt soared to over $122 billion. It also expects that it will raise over $40 billion in a combination of debt and equity. 

This soaring debt, and its exposure to OpenAI, explain why the stock has plunged in the past few months. 

On the positive side, the company has become highly undervalued. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 14.9, lower than the sector median of 23. Its five-year average was 22. 

The company also has a highly positive rule-of-40 multiple. Its forward revenue growth is about 17%, while its net income margin jumped to 45%. This means that the company is prioritizing its growth and margins.

READ MORE: Oracle stock slips on AI spending concerns, why analysts still see upside

Oracle stock technical analysis

ORCL stock chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the ORCL stock has plunged in the past few months. It slumped below the important support level of $136, its lowest level in February and March this year. Moving below that level confirmed that bears are in control.

The stock has dropped below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). at the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling and is nearing the oversold level.

The RSI suggests that the stock will continue falling as it gets to the oversold level. If this happens, it may drop to the key support level of $100 and then bounce back.