Kalshi’s commodities bets outpace crypto as monthly volume tops $400M

Prediction market startup Kalshi said Tuesday that its monthly commodities trading volume had reached more than $400 million, exceeding cryptocurrency trading volume by four times at the same point in the respective category’s development.

The rapid growth comes seven months after Kalshi launched its commodities markets as the company seeks to expand beyond event-based contracts and attract more retail traders.

The platform now offers prediction markets tied to commodities including oil, gas and metals.

Kalshi said the performance has demonstrated strong demand for contracts linked to new asset classes and encouraged it to explore additional markets.

Commodities trading gains momentum

Kalshi said commodities trading had benefited from improved liquidity on its platform, helping the category scale more quickly.

Co-founder Tarek Mansour told Reuters that liquidity is difficult to establish because a large number of active participants are needed to ensure traders can enter and exit positions efficiently.

Mansour said the platform now has a more diverse and larger participation pool, allowing Kalshi to launch new categories more quickly.

The company said the development also highlights a broader acceleration in its ability to build and scale markets.

Kalshi pointed to the experience of its cryptocurrency markets, which demonstrated the potential for new categories to grow from tens of millions of dollars to billions in monthly volume.

The commodities business has reached more than $400 million in monthly volume, according to the company, as retail participation has expanded.

Kalshi expands perpetual futures

Kalshi is also pursuing new products that could broaden its presence across financial markets.

The company has filed with regulators for perpetual futures tied to equity indexes and metals, while also exploring contracts linked to foreign exchange and interest rates.

The company is preparing to seek regulatory approval for a perpetual West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract, a Reuters report said last week. The proposed contract would allow trading 24 hours a day, five days a week.

If approved, the WTI contract would become the first perpetual futures product linked to oil to trade on a regulated US platform.

Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures because they do not have an expiration date.

Traders can maintain positions indefinitely without rolling contracts, while leverage can magnify both gains and losses.

Kalshi's expansion follows regulatory approval earlier this year for the first perpetual futures contracts in the US tied to cryptocurrency, including products offered by Coinbase and Kalshi.

Regulatory hurdles remain

Kalshi's expansion into commodities and other asset classes comes as US regulators examine the legal framework surrounding perpetual futures and round-the-clock trading.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has said applications involving new asset classes will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis.

The regulator had also been considering proposals concerning 24/7 trading of standard futures and perpetual contracts linked to physically delivered or storable energy commodities.

Earlier this year, the CFTC halted the listing of a proposed CME Group crude oil futures contract that would have enabled round-the-clock trading.

Kalshi's efforts to enter additional asset classes therefore remain dependent on regulatory approval.

For now, the sharp increase in commodities volume gives the company another source of trading activity as it expands its prediction-market platform beyond cryptocurrency and traditional event contracts.