Nio stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy, sell, or hold?

Nio stock price has gone sideways since November last year. It has remained inside a narrow range of between $4.38 and $5.78 in this period.

This consolidation may end next week when the Chinese electric vehicle company releases its financial results.

Nio stock has dropped despite important news 

The ongoing Nio stock consolidation mirrors that of other Chinese EV companies.

XPeng stock price has dived by over 41% from its highest level in November last year.

Similarly, Li Auto stock has tumbled by over 40% from its 2025 high, while BYD is hovering near its lowest level this year.

Nio has made some important announcements this year.

In a preview of its upcoming results, the company said that it will likely generate an adjusted profit of between RMB 700 million ($100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion ($123 million).

This profit gauge measures the company’s profitability excluding share based compensation, which is a big part of its business.

It attributed the profit growth to its high sales volume, cost reductions, and cost optimisation.

In another statement, Nio noted that its Chinese subsidiary raised RMB 2.7 billion for Shenji, a subsidiary that focuses on intelligent-driving semiconductors. Nio holds a 62.7% stake in the company.

Additionally, Nio has continued to boost its production and deliveries.

The most recent data showed that it delivered 20,797 vehicles in February, up by 57% from the same period last year.

It has now delivered 47,979 vehicles, bringing its cumulative deliveries to over 1.04 million.

The most recent results showed that Nio's business continued doing well in the third quarter as its deliveries continued growing.

Its vehicle sales rose to $2.69 billion, a 15% annual increase. Total revenue rose by 16.7% to $3.02 billion.

The results also showed that its gross margins rose to 13.7%, while its loss narrowed to $488 million.

All this is happening as competition in the electric vehicle industry continues rising, with tens of firms like XPeng, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and BYD competing to gain market share.

Nio is aiming to continue this growth trajectory by expanding to other markets.

For example, it is revamping its European business.

For example, it is aiming to transition its GermanX Dutch, and Swedish businesses into a distributor model, while its Norwegian business will maintain its direct sales model.

The company will also aim to benefit from the recently signed deal between Canada and China.

That deal has reduced tariffs from 100% to 6% for the first 50,000 vehicles.

Wall Street analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue rose by 68% to RMB 33.2 billion, bringing its annual revenue to over RMB 87 billion.

Nio share price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the Nio share price has remained under pressure in the past few months. 

It plunged from a high of $8.02 in October last year to the current $4.72.

The stock has remained between the support and resistance levels at $4.38 and $5.78.

It has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and formed a death cross pattern.

The stock has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

It has also formed a bearish flag pattern.

Therefore, the most likely Nio stock forecast is bearish, with the initial target being at $4.38, the lowest level this year.

A drop below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the key support level at $5.