Brazil inflation slows in March as IPCA-15 rises 0.44%

Brazil’s inflation showed signs of easing in March, as the IPCA-15, a key consumer price index, rose 0.44% after increasing 0.84% in February, according to data released by Brazil's IBGE.

When compared to the prior month, the data indicate a moderation in short-term inflation dynamics.

The IPCA-E, which measures the total IPCA-15, decreased to 1.49% quarterly from 1.99% during the same period in 2025.

In the meantime, the 12-month reading decreased from 4.10% in the previous 12-month period to 3.90%.

The IPCA-15 increased by 0.64% in March 2025, suggesting a slower monthly pace this year.

Broad-based increases led by food and services

Positive price changes were noted in March for all nine product and service categories surveyed.

Food and beverages led the price increases with a 0.88% jump and had the highest impact with a 0.19 percentage point.

Personal expenses increased by 0.82% with a contribution of 0.09 percentage points.

The gains in other categories were more modest, ranging from 0.47% in clothing to 0.03% in communication.

Personal care and health increased by 0.36%, adding 0.05 percentage points to the index as a whole.

Higher banking service costs (up 2.12%) and domestic employee expenses (up 0.59%) were the main drivers of the increase in personal expenses.

In terms of health and personal care, personal hygiene products increased by 0.38% and health insurance by 0.49%.

Food at home accelerates sharply

Food consumed at home increased 1.10% in March compared to a 0.09% increase in February, which had a big impact on the food and beverage category.

Açaí increased by 29.95%, carioca beans by 19.69%, chicken eggs by 7.54%, long-life milk by 4.46%, and meats by 1.45%.

Declines in fruits (down 1.31%) and ground coffee (down 1.76%) offset these increases.

Eating out slowed down, with prices rising 0.35% in March compared to 0.46% in February.

Meals posted a smaller increase of 0.31%, down from 0.62% the previous month, while snack prices accelerated from 0.28% to 0.50%.

Housing and utilities show mixed trends

After rising by 0.06% in February, housing costs increased by 0.24% in March.

Due to tariff adjustments of 15.10% and 14.66% in Rio de Janeiro concessionaires, residential electricity prices rose by 0.29% as of March 15.

There were no new fees because the green tariff flag was still in effect.

With adjustments of 6.56% in Belo Horizonte and 6.21% in Porto Alegre, water and sewage rates increased by 0.44%.

In contrast, tariff reductions in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba caused piped gas prices to drop by 0.99%.

Transport costs affected by airfare and fare changes

Airfare was the biggest individual contributor to the 0.21% increase in transportation costs, rising 5.94% and contributing 0.05 percentage points to the monthly outcome.

Due to changes in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba, intercity bus fares increased by 1.29%.

Fare increases in Porto Alegre, Fortaleza, and Salvador contributed to a 0.56% increase in taxi fares.

However, urban bus fares decreased by 0.59% due to fare reductions, which included free or discounted services on Sundays and holidays in several cities.

In Belém, Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, Salvador, Brasília, and Curitiba, negative variations were noted.

Fuel prices edged down 0.03%, with declines in vehicular gas, ethanol, and gasoline offsetting a 3.77% increase in diesel.

Regional variations highlight local pressures

Ten of the eleven regions that were surveyed saw price increases in March.

Due to significant increases in the cost of gasoline and tomatoes, Recife reported the biggest increase at 0.82%.

The only area where prices decreased was Curitiba, where they dropped by 0.06%.

The decline was ascribed to decreases in the cost of fruits and gasoline, as well as lower vehicle registration and licensing fees.