Invezz

Markets hold steady as investors await US data and central bank signals

Markets hold steady as investors await US data and central bank signals
Rivanshi Rakhrai
06 Jul 2026, 10:21 AM

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WTI crude

Buy WTI crude (WTI futures or USO). Iran’s Strait of Hormuz “service fees” talk is a direct risk premium catalyst for shipping and energy costs, and the article already shows WTI edging up toward ~$69. If the market starts pricing higher transit friction, crude can grind higher even without a full supply disruption.

Key Risk: Iran escalates from “fees” to an actual blockade or, conversely, backs off—crude risk premium collapses fast.

USD/JPY

Buy USD/JPY (long USD/JPY). The dollar is rebounding and yen is weakening (~+0.5% to just above 162) while investors wait for US data/central bank signals. If US yields stay supported and risk stays cautious, USD/JPY typically trends higher.

Key Risk: US data disappoints sharply or Japan/BoJ signals a more aggressive yen-supporting stance, reversing the yield/rate impulse.

  • Markets remain cautious ahead of key US economic data and central bank speeches.
  • Dollar steadies as investors assess weak US jobs data and mixed market signals.
  • Oil edges higher after Iran signals possible Strait of Hormuz shipping fees.

Global markets began the week on a cautious note as investors awaited the return of normal trading conditions following the three-day weekend in the United States.

Market participants remained focused on a series of scheduled economic releases and speeches from major central bank officials later in the day.

The Bank of Canada is also set to release its Business Outlook Survey, providing investors with additional insights into business sentiment.

Dollar holds gains after weak weekly performance

The US Dollar Index posted modest gains during European trading on Monday, hovering around the 101.00 mark.

The rebound followed a weak performance in the previous week, when the index declined by around 0.5%.

The earlier losses came after disappointing US labour market data for June weighed on the greenback.

Despite Monday's recovery, investor sentiment remained cautious.

US stock index futures traded on a mixed note, reflecting uncertainty ahead of fresh economic data and policy commentary.

Oil prices edge higher on Iran shipping remarks

Crude oil prices moved higher at the start of the week following comments from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking at the World Peace Forum over the weekend, Iran's ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said Tehran is considering introducing new service fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

He also said countries that supported Iran during the recent conflict could receive "special" treatment.

Following the remarks, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose modestly.

The benchmark was last seen trading at around $69 per barrel.

The euro holds above the key level despite the pullback

The euro weakened slightly against the US dollar in early Monday trading but remained above the 1.1400 level.

Investors also monitored fresh economic data from Europe.

Germany reported that factory orders increased by 1.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations for a 1.2% rise.

Attention later in the session will shift to the release of the Eurozone's Producer Price Index and Retail Sales data for May, both of which could provide further direction for the common currency.

Yen weakens as dollar advances

The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen during Monday's session.

USD/JPY gained around 0.5% on the day, trading slightly above the 162.00 level.

The move reflected renewed demand for the US dollar following its modest recovery in early European trading.

Pound gives back recent gains

The British pound retreated against the US dollar after posting strong gains in the previous week.

GBP/USD traded below the 1.3341 mark, correcting lower after advancing by more than 1% during the previous week.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar traded slightly weaker against its US counterpart.

USD/CAD edged higher and remained above the 1.4200 level as investors looked ahead to the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey for fresh cues on the country's economic outlook.

Overall, financial markets remained in a holding pattern as investors awaited key economic indicators and remarks from central bank officials that could shape expectations for the global economic and policy outlook in the coming sessions.