SpaceX briefly reclaims IPO price: is the stock about to rocket?

Shares of Elon Musk’s SpaceX SPCX rose on Monday, briefly returning to the company’s $135 initial public offering price.

The stock briefly touched $135 in early trading, marking a sharp rebound from the recent lows.

SpaceX shares closed as low as $108.27 just days ago and are on track for their highest close in about a month after ending a four-week losing streak with a 16% gain on Friday.

The rebound followed the expiration of the first major lock-up period for SpaceX shares, an event that had been closely watched by investors because it made roughly 911 million restricted insider shares eligible for sale.

Lock-up expiration fails to trigger expected selling pressure

Wall Street had widely anticipated significant selling pressure when the first lock-up restrictions expired last Thursday.

The release allowed roughly 911 million additional shares to become eligible for trading.

Before the expiration, only about 5% of SpaceX shares were freely tradable, contributing to limited liquidity and heightened volatility.

The expansion of the public float to more than 1.5 billion shares has increased the amount of stock available for trading and provided institutional investors with a larger pool of shares to accumulate.

The stock's 16% rally on Friday followed the lock-up expiration, with the move suggesting that selling pressure was less severe than some investors had anticipated.

Analysts remain firmly bullish on SPCX stock

SpaceX's rebound has also been supported by its first earnings report as a public company.

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, exceeding the $6.93 billion expected by analysts.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said during the earnings call that the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year.

Deutsche Bank analysts said Monday that the target is "likely very achievable."

The analysts said SpaceX's second-quarter run rate was about $31 billion but argued that reaching the $100 billion target would depend primarily on contributions from the company's neocloud business and its acquisition of AI coding company Cursor.

The revenue outlook comes as investors continue to assess SpaceX's large investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the company's ability to translate those investments into new sources of revenue.

Citi analysts also raised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts after incorporating the sources of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings beat.

The analysts reiterated their Buy rating on the stock while keeping their $200 price target unchanged.

"Given the dependency of out-year forecasts/valuation on successful Starship milestones, we leave our PT unchanged at $200 and plan to adjust our target ratably toward the $900+ long term valuation level we outlined in our initiation as major milestones are hit," the analysts wrote in a Sunday note.

Retail investors turn cautious

Retail investors also changed their positioning after weeks of buying SpaceX shares during the post-IPO decline.

According to Vanda Research data cited in a Reuters report, individual investors were net sellers of SpaceX shares on August 7, selling a net $4.5 million.

It was the first net-negative reading for retail trading in the stock since its June 12 debut.

The shift came shortly after retail investors bought shares aggressively during an earlier selloff.

Vanda said retail investors' net buying on August 5, when SpaceX shares fell 13.6%, ranked as their fourth-highest level since the IPO.

The change in retail positioning followed SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report, which highlighted faster potential returns from AI spending while leaving investors to assess how long the company's profitable Starlink business can support the costs of its AI expansion.

SpaceX shares had risen as much as 67% above the $135 IPO price in June before giving back those gains and falling more than 20% below the IPO price in August.

The latest rebound has brought the stock back toward its debut valuation as investors weigh stronger revenue expectations against the company's ongoing investment requirements and future Starship milestones.