Intuitive Machines stock jumps 8% as Wall Street backs $1.8B backlog

Intuitive Machines Inc. LUNR shares rallied sharply on Friday after multiple Wall Street analysts shifted their focus from the company's second-quarter earnings miss to its rapidly expanding order backlog, arguing that the long-term growth outlook remains intact.

The stock climbed about 8.14% to $18.99 during Friday's session after Stifel upgraded the lunar exploration company to Buy from Hold, despite lowering its price target to $26 from $32.

The move extended the stock's recent momentum, with shares gaining in 11 of the past 12 trading sessions and up about 62% so far this month.

While Intuitive Machines reported second-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA below expectations, analysts said the company's nearly $1.8 billion backlog has become the more important driver of the investment case.

Backlog growth becomes the key focus

Intuitive Machines ended the second quarter with a contracted backlog of nearly $1.8 billion, up roughly $707 million from the previous quarter.

Much of the increase came from a $600 million contract to build three commercial geostationary Earth orbit communications satellites.

Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann said the backlog expansion outweighed concerns surrounding quarterly financial results.

"It's the backlog surge that is important," Siegmann wrote.

The analyst added that the backlog is well diversified across civil, commercial and national security space programs.

Siegmann also argued that investors are paying too much attention to near-term execution while overlooking improving longer-term prospects.

"The 2027 outlook is substantially improving. Buy LUNR now while the market stays preoccupied with 2026. LUNR's backlog build is diversifying and accelerating—this is the most important development of the quarter," he wrote.

Analysts remain optimistic despite lower price targets

Other analysts also highlighted the company's growing order book while making adjustments to their valuation targets.

Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target to $32 from $43 but maintained its Overweight rating.

Analyst Andres Sheppard pointed to the expanding backlog, along with contracts tied to NASA and the Golden Dome missile defense program, as reasons to remain constructive on the stock.

The firm also noted that Intuitive Machines reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion and maintained expectations for positive adjusted EBITDA.

During the second quarter, the company secured its sixth lunar mission under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program.

It also won the AMDT3 Golden Dome contract to design, build and deliver 18 spacecraft for the Space Development Agency.

Management disclosed that its third lunar mission is now expected to launch in the first quarter of 2027 instead of the fourth quarter of 2026, delaying recognition of roughly 10% of the related contract revenue.

Long-term contracts strengthen growth outlook

B. Riley also became more bullish following the earnings report.

Analyst Mike Crawford maintained a Buy rating and raised his price target to $45 from $43.

Crawford said the company's $1.8 billion backlog "highlights growing momentum" as Intuitive Machines "aims to become the next-generation space prime."

He added that Thursday's trading reversal reflected investors shifting attention away from weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue toward the company's expanding pipeline of future business.

Beyond recent awards, Intuitive Machines has also been selected under the US Space Force's Andromeda multiple-award contract, which carries an initial value of up to $1.84 billion and a total potential value of up to $6.24 billion across participating companies.

Although analysts do not expect the company to reach profitability this year, its revenue has grown 117% over the past 12 months.

Wall Street now appears increasingly focused on whether its expanding contract portfolio can support sustained growth over the coming years.