Three stocks to watch after Bessent's Treasury buybacks announcement

US Treasury Department announced on August 19 that it will at least double its liquidity-support buybacks for 10-year to 30-year debt – a surprise mid-cycle move from Secretary Scott Bessent weeks after publishing the quarter’s schedule.

The intervention landed as outstanding public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time.

Long yields responded immediately: the 30-year fell from 5.26% to 5.18% after touching a 2007-era high near 5.3%, while the 10-year eased from 4.68% to 4.63%.

Bessent’s announcement resulted in a rebound in US stocks, as represented by the benchmark S&P 500 index as well.

Here are three names that have the highest 60-day correlation to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

Toll Brothers leads the homebuilder cohort with the highest 0.71 60-day correlation to TLT. Long yields feed directly into mortgage rates – which govern affordability and buyer demand.

TOL also reported its fiscal Q3 results on Wednesday, featuring $2.97 per share of earnings (EPS) on $2.65 billion in revenue ahead of the consensus estimates set at $2.93 a share and $2.61 billion, respectively.

Q4 delivery guidance of 3,450 to 3,550 homes came in just under the Street’s 3,508 estimate, which is why the stock ended about flat.

The next test is whether Wednesday’s yield relief holds long enough to move mortgage rates before its next order cycle.

Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)

Williams-Sonoma, a San Francisco-headquartered retailer of kitchenware and home furnishings, also shows marked sensitivity to long-bond swings, with its 60-day correlation to TLT at 0.64.

The exposure runs through two channels: existing-home turnover – which drives demand for new furnishings and typically tracks mortgage rates – and direct financing on big-ticket purchases like furniture and kitchen remodels, where lower long yields translate into cheaper credit for shoppers.

Falling yields ease both constraints simultaneously.

Williams-Sonoma reports quarterly results on August 26, a week after Wednesday’s announcement – which would likely offer more colour on whether the rate move is reaching order volumes yet.

Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK)

Alaska Air has its 60-day correlation to TLT at about 0.60 currently, indicating yields tend to affect its stock price rather significantly.

The correlation runs through balance-sheet mechanics: airlines carry heavy debt and aircraft-lease obligations – borrowing costs move with long yields, while tighter financial conditions often cool discretionary leisure demand.

However, Alaska Air Group Inc’s setup is complicated by company-specific strain: a Q2 2026 adjusted loss driven by elevated fuel costs, plus hurricane disruption to Hawaii operations in mid-August, now folded in through the Hawaiian Airlines integration.

Therefore, whether Wednesday’s yield relief moves the ALK stock price will likely hinge less on the correlation to TLT than on how quickly fuel costs and storm recovery clear the air carrier’s balance sheet.