Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions as ETF outflows resume amid prolonged war risk

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices pulled back and erased some of the gains they made earlier this week as their ETF outflows resumed and as signs showed that the war in Iran will continue in the foreseeable future. 

BTC retreated to $70,000 from this week's high of $74,500, while Ethereum fell to $2,085. Other top coins like XRP, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, and Zcash were down by over 2.5% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fall as ETF outflows rise 

SoSoValue data shows that American investors dumped their Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday as it became clear that the war in Iran will last for weeks or months.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $227 million in assets on Thursday, reversing the $461 million inflows that happened a day earlier. Its cumulative inflows since inception stands at $55 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT having the biggest market share.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also experienced $90 million outflows on Thursday, a day after they added over $169 million in inflows. These funds have all added $11.7 million in inflows. Other crypto ETFs like XRP, Solana, and Hedera also experienced outflows on Thursday. 

These outflows happened on the same day that American shares plunged, with the Dow Jones Index falling by over 785 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell by over 50 points, and their futures points to modest gains.

As you recall, the gains in the stock and crypto markets on Wednesday happened after the media reported that Iran had reached out to the United States and urged for talks to end the war.

The pullback on Thursday happened after Iran denied these allegations, leading to a sharp decline in ceasefire odds. Polymarket data shows that odds of a ceasefire happening in March and April have continued falling in the past two days. 

Worse, a report by Politico shows that the Trump administration is considering a war that runs until September this year. Other reports show that the administration, especially the CIA, is considering causing chaos in Iran by funding Kurdish forces.

All these factors mean that crude oil and natural gas prices will continue soaring in the coming months, which may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to either hike interest rates or hold them higher for longer.

Bitcoin price prediction: Technical analysis 

BTC price made a strong bullish breakout this week, reaching a high of $74,000, its highest level in over a month. It crossed the important resistance level at $71,000, its highest swing on February 8 and 15 this year.

The coin has remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $75,720. It also moved below the dynamic resistance of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, the downtrend will likely remain as long as it remains below the average and the 23.6% retracement level. It will also remain in a bear market as long as the Supertrend indicator remains red.

Ethereum price prediction: Technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the Ethereum price has moved sideways since February 6. It has remained between the support and resistance levels at $1,812 and $2,185.

ETH price has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a flagpole and a horizontal channel. 

Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakdown in the near term, potentially to the year-to-date low of $1,736.