SpaceX IPO: Ron Baron says the space exploration firm will be bigger than Nvidia

SpaceX IPO: Ron Baron says the space exploration firm will be bigger than Nvidia
Wajeeh Khan
12 May 2026, 18:16 PM

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SpaceX (IPO) — Buy

Buy SpaceX shares at/near IPO (or first liquid post-IPO trading). The thesis is that Starship’s jump from ~18 tons (Falcon 9) to ~200 tons enables “orbital data centers” with cheap power and cooling, turning space launch into scalable AI infrastructure. Baron’s point about repeated tender liquidity also signals strong insider/employee share availability and a credible path to a massive public float. Index inclusion on Nasdaq should drive sustained institutional demand.

Key Risk: Starship fails to reach reliable, high-cadence operations (or orbital data-center economics don’t pencil), collapsing the long-duration valuation story.

Space launch peers — Sell

Sell/short the most direct public comps to SpaceX’s launch business (e.g., Rocket Lab (RKLB) and United Launch Alliance-linked suppliers via public aerospace primes like Lockheed Martin (LMT) where exposure is meaningful). If SpaceX’s reusability + Starship scale compresses launch costs and wins the next wave of contracts, smaller players lose pricing power and growth visibility. The market will re-rate the whole “space infrastructure” basket toward SpaceX as the category winner.

Key Risk: Competitors match cost/performance fast enough (or secure long-term government/commercial contracts) to prevent SpaceX from taking share and compressing margins across the group.

  • Ron Baron says SpaceX could be worth up to $30 trillion over the next 10-15 years.
  • The billionaire investor explains why he's bullish on Elon Musk's space exploration firm.
  • SpaceX is reportedly seeking an initial (IPO) valuation of as much as $1.75 trillion.

In a landmark interview with CNBC this morning, billionaire investor Ron Baron said SpaceX is on a trajectory to become the “largest company” on planet Earth.

Over the past six months, Baron Capital has grown its assets under management (AUMs) by an incredible $14 billion, a surge the market mogul attributed to his early and aggressive bets on Elon Musk’s ventures. 

As SpaceX prepares for a debut that could shatter all previous records, Baron’s bullish remarks on CNBC suggest a valuation potential that may eventually dwarf the current titans, including Nvidia.

SpaceX seeking $1.75 trillion valuation

Ron Baron described SpaceX’s upcoming IPO as the “largest stock debut in history”.

With Elon Musk reportedly targeting an initial valuation of as much as $1.75 trillion, the company is set to storm onto public markets as a titan.

According to Baron, his firm’s $1.7 billion investment in SpaceX since 2017 has ballooned to an exciting $15 billion already. “SpaceX grew,” he noted simply when asked about the recent AUM surge.

On Squawk Box, the market expert highlighted a unique liquidity strategy that allowed SpaceX to remain private for so long: biannual $1 billion tender offers.

“We’ve been one of the largest, if not the largest, purchasers in each of those deals,” Baron revealed, explaining how he bought shares directly from employees to build his massive stake.

Why Baron remains constructive on SpaceX

Baron’s conviction isn’t just rooted in rockets – but in the revolutionary infrastructure that SpaceX is building.

According to him, the “huge unlock” for Musk’s space exploration firm is the transition from the Falcon 9 to the Starship.

While the former carries nearly 18 tons to space, the latter is designed to carry 200 tons.

This capacity is the backbone of a new frontier: orbital data centers. “Instead of having data centers on our planet, you get free electricity and free cooling once you get into space,” Baron explained.

By utilizing both solar power and the natural vacuum of space for cooling, SpaceX plans to bypass terrestrial land-use conflicts and rising energy costs, a move he believes will revolutionize the AI and data industries.

SpaceX may eventually hit $30 trillion valuation

While a $1.75 trillion IPO is unprecedented, Ron Baron believes this is merely the ground floor.

He predicted that over the next 10 to 15 years, SpaceX could reach a valuation of “$10 trillion, 20 trillion, 30 trillion,” adding he “could be very low” on those estimates.

This vision places SpaceX far beyond the current market caps of companies like Nvidia or Apple.

Baron also pointed to the expected rapid inclusion of SpaceX in major indices – with the company reportedly choosing Nasdaq – as a catalyst for massive institutional inflow.

“This is going to become the largest company on the planet,” Baron asserted, citing Musk’s ability to achieve the “impossible” task of rocket reusability as a foundational advantage that no competitor has managed to replicate.