DOGE price outlook: can bulls defend the key $0.080 support?

Dogecoin (Dogecoin) is trading around $0.0850 on Monday, holding steady after a 5% rebound from its recent low below $0.0800.

The modest recovery follows a volatile stretch in which the meme coin briefly tested its weakest levels since early February before buyers stepped in around the key support zone.

The momentum indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is not over yet, with the bulls still struggling to regain control. 

Whale wallets reduce holdings to multi-month lows

On-chain data suggests weakening conviction among larger investors.

According to Santiment, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have reduced their exposure to about 22.95% of the circulating supply, down from 24.63% in late April.

This marks a five-month low for this cohort.

Meanwhile, wallets holding more than 1 billion DOGE, often associated with exchange-linked addresses, now control 47.06% of supply, up from earlier lows in April. 

While this does not directly confirm selling, it signals a shift in supply distribution away from mid-sized “smart money” holders.

Together, these trends suggest declining accumulation interest among influential DOGE holders.

Derivatives data also point to fading speculative demand.

DOGE futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to just above $1.04 billion, down 1% in the last 24 hours and sharply from a peak of $1.76 billion in mid-May. 

The decline to a two-month low indicates reduced participation in leveraged positions and a broader cooling in retail risk appetite toward the token.

If the open interest continues to decline, it could increase DOGE’s downside pressure, especially if spot demand weakens further.

DOGE technical outlook: Bulls continue to defend the $0.080 support

The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart is bearish as Dogecoin lost 15% of its value in the last seven days.

At press time, DOGE is trading at $0.085, just above the $0.080 support level.

The coin briefly dropped below $0.080 on Friday but has quickly bounced back, forming a Dragonfly Doji pattern, often interpreted as a sign of buyer defense at lower levels. 

Despite that, the momentum indicators are giving mixed signals at the moment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced from oversold territory near 30 and now reads 48, approaching the neutral zone. This indicates a fading bearish momentum. 

The MACD remains in negative territory, signaling persistent bearish momentum.

If DOGE fails to hold above $0.0800, it could extend its decline towards the $0.0741 level for the first time since January 2024.

An extended bearish performance could see DOGE hit a two-and-a-half-year low of $0.0654.

However, if the $0.080 support level holds, the bulls could target the next major resistance level at $0.0989 in the near term. 

A sustained break above these zones would be needed to confirm any meaningful trend reversal.

While Dogecoin has stabilized in the short term, weakening whale accumulation and declining futures activity suggest the broader structure remains fragile. 

The $0.0800 level now stands as the key support for determining whether the recent rebound evolves into recovery or another leg lower.