Citi trims 3-month gold target to $4,000 on softer demand

Citigroup lowered its three-month price target for gold to $4,000 an ounce, from $4,300, according to research published Monday by the bank.

In the short term, there are few catalysts for the precious metal to continue its rise, the bank said in the note.

It does, however, believe that the metal could go higher in the summer if there is a sharp economic decline or jump in inflation.

The bank's analysts pointed to a combination of stabilizing real yields, a stronger short-term bias for the US dollar, and declining safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks have eased.

Improving macro backdrop weighs on gold outlook

According to Citi, several of the factors that helped drive gold higher earlier in the year have started to fade.

The analysts noted that physical gold demand from central banks has moderated, while exchange-traded fund inflows have also slowed.

Together, those developments have reduced one of the key sources of support that fueled the rally.

Citi said weakening safe-haven premiums are also contributing to a less favorable environment for gold prices.

"Near-term upside looks capped unless we see a fresh shock," the analysts wrote.

The revised forecast marks a notable shift from the bank's more bullish stance earlier this year, when concerns about geopolitical instability and market uncertainty supported expectations for higher precious metals prices.

However, Citi has not completely abandoned its constructive outlook on gold.

The bank said prices could still move above $4,000 during the summer if economic conditions deteriorate significantly or if inflation begins to accelerate again.

Longer-term outlook remains unchanged

Despite lowering its short-term target, Citi left its six-to-12-month gold forecast unchanged at $4,500 per ounce.

The bank said that longer-term upside remains possible if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish policy stance or if geopolitical tensions intensify once again.

The latest adjustment comes several months after Citi significantly increased its gold forecasts.

On Jan. 13, Citi strategists led by Kenny Hu raised their zero-to-three-month target for gold to $5,000 per ounce and their silver target to $100 per ounce.

At the time, the bank expected the precious metals bull market to continue through early 2026.

The strategists cited "heightened geopolitical risks, ongoing physical market shortages, and renewed uncertainty on Fed independence" as key reasons for the upgrade.

Gold and silver subsequently reached new record highs during the year.

Citi still favors silver and industrial metals

While gold remains a key focus for investors, Citi continues to believe silver could outperform the yellow metal over time.

The bank reiterated its longstanding view that the broader precious metals rally would eventually expand into industrial metals.

"Our longstanding call for silver to outperform and for the precious metals bull market to broaden into industrial metals and for industrial metals to take centre stage over the same periods has worked well," strategists wrote.

Citi's January outlook had already anticipated that geopolitical tensions would ease after the first quarter, reducing investor demand for traditional safe-haven assets later in the year and leaving gold vulnerable to a correction.

Looking ahead, the bank remains constructive on industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, which it expects to perform well during the second half of 2026.