Brent crude set for 7% weekly fall as Hormuz squeeze fears start to fade

Oil is ending the week with a message that looks contradictory at first glance: the Gulf is still dangerous, but the market is no longer pricing the worst.

Crude slipped on Friday and headed for losses of about 7% for the week as more tankers moved out of the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a prolonged supply squeeze.

The pullback came despite a vessel being struck near Oman, a reminder that the reopening of the world’s most important oil chokepoint is still fragile.

For traders, the question is now whether improving flows can keep overpowering fresh security shocks.

Hormuz flows pull risk premium lower

Brent crude fell 0.25% to $75.07 a barrel in early trade, while West Texas Intermediate eased 0.18% to $71.79, as per data from commodity trading platforms.

Both benchmarks had risen more than 2% on Thursday after a cargo ship was hit near Oman, but the move faded as the broader shipping picture continued to improve.

Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed to their highest level since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February.

That has taken pressure off prices, particularly after weeks when traders feared a deeper disruption to Gulf exports.

Even so, the recovery is not complete. Overall traffic remains far below the pre-conflict average of about 125 ships a day, which means the market is pricing a partial reopening rather than a full return to normal.

Oman incident keeps traders cautious

The attack near Oman has stopped crude from falling more sharply.

The UN’s International Maritime Organization paused its voluntary evacuation scheme after the vessel was hit, saying safety assurances needed to be reassessed.

US officials said Iran fired on the cargo ship as it attempted to move through the area, while Tehran warned that vessels outside approved Hormuz routes would not be guaranteed safe passage.

That has revived concern that the strait could remain a bargaining chip even after the ceasefire.

Market analysts said the incident has allowed some geopolitical risk premium to return, but not enough to reverse the weekly slide.

Traders will now watch whether tankers keep moving and whether producers delay planned supply increases if security conditions worsen again.

Venezuela adds a smaller supply worry

Away from the Gulf, earthquakes in Venezuela briefly added another layer of supply risk.

Initial reports suggested limited damage to the country’s major oilfields, refineries, pipelines and export terminals, many of which are far from the hardest-hit areas.

The larger concern is power. Venezuela’s output has been running close to 1.2 million barrels a day, and any prolonged electricity disruption could threaten operations even without major physical damage to energy assets.

Also read: Venezuela’s oil comeback lures majors into a $100 billion rebuild

For now, the dominant force remains Hormuz.

Crude is still sensitive to headlines, but the direction of travel this week has been clear: more ships are moving, supply fears are fading, and oil’s war premium is shrinking.