Silver price forecast: can bulls defend $60 as Hormuz risks lift oil?

Silver’s four-day rebound ran into a familiar problem on Tuesday: oil.

The white metal fell back towards $61 an ounce as reports of fresh attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns that energy prices could climb again.

For silver, the issue is not only geopolitical risk.

A stronger oil market can quickly feed back into inflation expectations, and that keeps the Federal Reserve rate debate alive.

With traders waiting for Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, XAG/USD is caught between bargain-hunting and renewed macro pressure.

Hormuz risk revives oil anxiety

Spot silver fell about 1.35% to trade near $61.00 in Asian hours, extending Monday’s pullback after a sharp recovery last week.

The immediate pressure came from oil, which found support after US officials cited by Axios said Iran fired missiles at commercial ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency separately reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, causing a fire.

That kept traders focused on the vulnerability of one of the world’s most important energy routes.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a major share of global oil and LNG flows, which is why even limited disruptions can move inflation expectations.

For silver, higher energy prices are a headwind if they raise the risk of tighter monetary policy.

Dollar and yields keep silver boxed in

The pressure on silver is also coming through the dollar and Treasury market.

When energy risks rise, traders often reassess inflation and the likely path for interest rates. That can lift yields and support the greenback, both of which are difficult for silver.

The metal does not pay interest, so it tends to struggle when investors can earn better returns from cash or bonds.

A firmer dollar also makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies, limiting demand during rebounds.

That is why the latest pullback looks more macro-driven than purely technical.

Silver may still attract safe-haven interest when geopolitical risks rise, but that support can fade quickly if the same risks push yields higher and keep the dollar bid.

Technical picture remains heavy

The chart still favours caution. XAG/USD is trading around $61.50 and remains below the 20-day exponential moving average near $63.35.

That level is the first real barrier for buyers. A sustained move above it would ease the short-term bearish tone and open a path towards a more durable recovery.

Momentum is not yet extreme. The relative strength index near 41 suggests selling pressure is persistent, but not exhausted.

That leaves room for choppy trade rather than a clean trend.

On the downside, $60 is the key psychological support. A break below that level would expose the seven-month low near $55.63.

Until silver reclaims the 20-day average, rebounds may continue to face selling pressure.