Nikkei 225 rebounds sharply as AI earnings become market’s next big test

Japanese stocks rose on Tuesday as investors returned from a long weekend and bought into last week’s steep technology-led sell-off, though the rebound stopped short of signalling a durable turn in sentiment.

The Nikkei 225 gained 1.25% to 64,945.96 in early trade, recovering only part of its 6.4% weekly slide, the sharpest in more than a year.

The broader Topix climbed 1.33% to 3,971.20. Japan’s cash-equity market had been closed on Monday for Marine Day, leaving traders to absorb modest Wall Street losses alongside higher oil prices and rising US Treasury yields.

Bargain hunting drives a broad rebound

The recovery extended well beyond a handful of heavyweight stocks.

A total of 196 Nikkei members advanced, while 28 declined, suggesting investors were buying across sectors after the previous week’s disorderly retreat.

Kioxia Holdings led the benchmark with a 5.89% jump as memory-chip shares recovered from heavy selling.

Shiseido rose 5.78%, while industrial group IHI advanced 4.14%. Nintendo fell 3.91%, chip-materials supplier Sumco lost 3.45% and Nikon declined 2.18%.

The broad participation offered some reassurance after the Nikkei entered correction territory on Friday, when it closed more than 11% below its June record.

Still, the early bounce looked more like position rebuilding than a decisive return to risk.

AI earnings will decide the next move

Technology results in the US now carry unusual weight for Japan because semiconductors and AI-linked companies drove much of the market’s earlier surge.

Alphabet and Tesla are due to report on Wednesday, while Intel follows after Thursday’s close.

Tesla has already disclosed second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 gigawatt-hours.

Investors will now focus on margins, AI investment and the cost of expanding newer businesses.

Intel’s report will provide another test of demand for data-centre products and the progress of its manufacturing turnaround.

Nomura strategist Wataru Akiyama characterised Tuesday’s move as a technical recovery with limited momentum.

In his view, major earnings releases in Japan and the US should determine whether weakness in AI-related shares begins to ease.

Rebound still lacks strong conviction

Wall Street offered only a cautious lead.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% on Monday, the Dow fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq ended almost unchanged as stabilising chip shares were offset by higher Treasury yields and oil prices.

That backdrop leaves the Nikkei vulnerable to another reversal if technology guidance disappoints or geopolitical tensions push energy costs higher.

Japan’s market also remains unusually dependent on a small group of expensive exporters and semiconductor names.

Tuesday’s breadth shows buyers are willing to step in after sharp losses.

Whether they remain will depend less on bargain prices and more on whether this week’s earnings can restore confidence in the AI investment cycle.